US hiring seen growing at a solid pace in July even as the broader economy cooled
- Government data out Friday is expected to show hiring continued to pick up at a healthy pace in July despite a cooling economy.
- Economists predict the monthly Labor Department report will show the US added 165,000 nonfarm payrolls last month.
- The results would mean the labor market added jobs for a record 106 straight months, even as the sugar high from tax cuts fades and as President Donald Trump escalates tariff disputes with some of the US's largest trading partners.
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Government data out Friday is expected to show hiring continued to pick up at a healthy pace in July despite a cooling economy.
Economists predict the monthly Labor Department report will show the US added 165,000 nonfarm payrolls last month. That would be fewer than the blockbuster increase in June, but enough to keep unemployment levels near historic lows. At 3.6%, unemployment rate is expected to edge back down to its lowest since 1969.
Average hourly earnings are seen rising 0.2% in July, marking a 3.1% increase from a year earlier. While wages have increased at or above that pace since late 2018, there have been growing concerns that growth has flatlined.
"Although we're seeing positive job gains and steadiness in unemployment, the real trend to watch will be pay growth, as the Federal Reserve cuts rates due to rising trade tensions and a slowing global economy," said Daniel Zhao, a senior economist at the career site Glassdoor.
The results would mean the labor market added jobs for a record 106 straight months, even as the sugar high from tax cuts fades and as President Donald Trump escalates economic disputes with some of the US's largest trading partners. But the latest gross domestic product report suggested tariffs have started to have more pronounced effects on exports and business investment, putting pressure on sectors like manufacturing.
"The July employment report will likely feature reversion to the mean among goods producing, construction and manufacturing jobs, all of which outperformed their three- and six-month moving averages in June," said Joseph Brusuelas, the chief economist at RSM, an international consulting company. "In particular, we are concerned about the pace of manufacturing hiring."
On average, the US added a solid 171,000 jobs a month between April and June.
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