Earnings recession still on track, but outlook has improved in the last week

With a out 16% of the S&P 500 having reported earnings for he second-quarter, the aggregate blended estimate is a decline of 1.9% from a year ago, according to FactSet. Last week, the blended estimate, which combines actual and estimated results, was for a decline of 3.1%. Of the companies that reported results, 79% have beat earnings-per-share estimates by an average of 7.0%, with both above 5-year averages, said FactSet analyst John Butters. After a 0.3% EPS decline in the first quarter, a negative print for the second quarter would mark the first "earnings recession" since the second quarter of 2016. The S&P 500 was up 0.2% in afternoon trading, and has gained 2.6% over the past three months, and rallied 19.0% year to date.

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