UK Election polls: who would win if a Snap Election was called?
THE results of European elections have shaken UK politics to the core with Nigel Farage’s Brexit Party coming from nowhere to claim the largest share of the vote.
A General Election is due in 2022 but with Prime Minister Theresa May due to step down, speculation is mounting that there could be one this year.
What do the polls say about who would win?
According to an average of polls conducted since March, Labour would win 29 per cent of the vote giving it 299 MPs and making it the largest single party.
The calculations carried out by electionpolling.co.uk show Labour gaining 37 seats but still short of an overall majority in the House of Commons.
The Conservatives would be on 23.7 per cent which translates in a loss of 76 seats.
Both Labour and the Tories would see massive cuts in their share of the vote which stood at 41 per cent and 43 per cent in 2017.
Eating into their share of the vote is the Brexit Party with 17 per cent – though its showing at the European elections could push that higher.
The Lib Dems would see a resurgence in their vote nearly doubling it to 13 per cent, in the process gaining 22 MPs.
May 22 – the day before the European elections – was last day the polling was conducted so it remains to be seen what would the effect of its results would be.
The Tories slumped to just 9 per cent – their worst ever national election result – while Labour polled just 14 per cent.
How could an early election be triggered?
The Fixed Term Parliaments Act allows for there to be two ways a general election could be triggered.
The first is for the Government to lose a no-confidence motion by a simple majority after which there are two weeks for a new one to be formed which commanded a majority.
If that doesn’t happen the Parliament is dissolved and the country goes to the polls.
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Secondly, if MPs vote for a two-thirds majority to be secured on a motion to call an early election then one can be held.
What are the odds of a general election taking place?
According to the Oddschecker website, most bookmakers have the odds of there being a general election this year at 7/4 with around 70 per cent of punters betting on this year.
When it comes to who’ll win Labour are 11/10, the Conservatives 5/4 and the Brexit Party 6/1.
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