*** First thing first, if Kevin Durant is not available or not 100% whether it’s his heart and mind, health or chemistry with teammates, then the title of this writeup instantly changes to "Why the Raptors will win it all?"
Who will win the series between the Raptors and Warriors?
Every analyst, pundit, wishful thinker or fool has his own reasons for thinking a certain way and mine starts with a look at the 2015-2016 NBA championships when Cleveland came back from behind 1-3 to beat a Golden State team with Curry, Thompson, Green sans Durant. As many Raptors fans must now be able to relate, fresh from watching the Raptors came back from 0-2 to beat the Bucks 4-2, when a team makes this kind of a comeback, like Cleveland did winning 3 straight games including 2 in the Bay Area, it means the winning team had got the other team figured out. Just like the Raptors figured out the Bucks, that Cavs team got that Warriors team figured out. So let us examine what made them capable of that feat.
Vantage Point 1
Let us make a checklist of what the Cavaliers got at that point to see if the Raptors also have these qualities or even upgrades –
• The Cavs had the defensive tenacity and physicality to overcome lack of firepower which any other team in the NBA would find itself in when pitted against the Warriors. Raptors? Check. The way they went through the Sixers and Bucks, they definitely do.
• The Cavs had an alpha dog go-to player in Kyrie Irving who can put the ball down and create his own shots when the stakes are high and both teams’ defense tighten up deep in the playoffs. Raptors? Check. They got one who is way better in the Jordan stratosphere in Kawhi Leonard.
• The Cavs got the basketball IQ personified by their snake head Lebron James to make sure the ball constantly moved and found the player in the best position to take a good shot. Raptors? Check. They got Lowry, Gasol, Van Vleet plus Kawhi who have all shown they know the importance of moving the ball.
Vantage Point 2
How about looking at the team itself, will Kawhi Leonard find it harder to operate against Iguodala? You answer that. I got my own answer. Will the other Raptors not named Kawhi find it easier or harder to score against the Warriors defense compared to the Bucks or the Sixers? For sure easier than against the Sixers because of the Warrior’s obvious limitations in size and length. Danny Green is due to go off anytime and Siakam should also fare a lot better without Embiid or the Greek Freak menacingly lurking around. Draymond Green - one of the smartest players in the NBA - does not have the length to bother Siakam. Neither does Kevon Looney. Marc Gasol’s own IQ will offset some of Draymond’s. What’s Draymond going to do? Injure Gasol like he did to JV? Then when I factor in Ibaka, Van Vleet, Powell against the Warriors’ bench, I will take our bench anytime. Heck, we can even play Jeremy Lin if they play Quinn Cook, we can play their discard turned Raptor Patrick McCaw if they can play our discard turned Warrior Alfonso McKinnie.
Back to Vantage point 1, the Warriors added Kevin Durant the next season and the Cavaliers were not able to repeat. Because now the Warriors had an Alpha Dog to whom Kyrie Irving could not measure up to and the Cavs really had no one who could or was willing to guard Durant. The willingness part pertains to Lebron James who might have a chance if he busted his behind to persistently cover Kevin Durant. But because of pride, the king was either not willing to take the risks or knew he did not have the physical attributes like length to succeed. (Kawhi will have no such problem standing up to Durant not to mention Siakam and Ibaka can relief him when he needs a rest) The following season in the aftermath of the blaming game, Kyrie left for Boston and there is nothing to discuss except to focus back on that season when Cleveland had both LeBron and Kyrie while the Warriors had the big three. My argument is Cleveland lost because their alpha dog in Kyrie couldn't hold a candle to the Warriors alpha dog Durant and their bench is inferior to the Warriors bench. Regarding the bench part, I think the Raptors have the advantage over the Warriors. So it comes down to the question of who is the alpha dog of all alpha dogs? Who is easier to contain? Kevin Durant or Kawhi Leonard? We all have our own answers and I would say yours will decide which team you believe will win it all.
