Welcome to Starting 9, the Clarion Ledger's weekly look at where Ole Miss baseball stands throughout the 2019 season. Every Monday, we'll touch on the nine biggest topics surrounding the Rebels as the team tries to make a push for Omaha. To read last week's edition, click here.
Everyone knows what happened to Ole Miss baseball this weekend. There's no need to rehash the obvious. So let's get to the future: What's next?
Well, in the most immediate sense, Ole Miss is about to embark on a two-week road trip. If things go well, there's a chance it won't have to turn into a three-week road trip. But things will have to go really well for that to be the case.
Let's take a look at that and more in this week's Starting 9.
After getting swept by Mississippi State this weekend, Ole Miss fell to 15-12 in SEC play this season with one series remaining. And that 15 number is an important one to pay attention when it comes to the opportunity to host an NCAA Regional. It's common knowledge that the top 16 teams in the nation get to host first-round games in the NCAA Tournament. But what might not be as common knowledge is the recent groove the NCAA selection committee has settled into when selected host programs from the SEC.
Dating back to 2014, 23 SEC teams have finished the regular season with at least 18 conference wins. Of those 23 teams, 22 have gone onto host regionals, with the one exception being Mississippi State in 2014. And over that same span, there's only been one exception the other way too, with a 17-win LSU squad earning a host bid in 2014 on the back of an unbeaten performance in the SEC Tournament.
This leaves Ole Miss with two pretty concrete paths to earning host status: Sweep Tennessee in Knoxville this weekend to get to 18 SEC wins or make a deep run in Hoover to impress the selection committee.
Four SEC teams have already reached the 18-win mark this season: Arkansas, Vanderbilt, Georgia and Mississippi State. And that number usually represents the SEC's max point; the conference has earned four regional hosting bids in four of the last five seasons. The outlier was 2016, when seven SEC teams hosted thanks to a season where the league didn't have much of a middle class.
All that is to say Ole Miss' path to hosting isn't unprecedented. The team it plays this weekend is ranked No. 10 in the RPI. Sweep that admittedly strong team and things will probably be OK. If not, the Rebels are going to need a fantastic showing in Hoover to preserve what little hope there might be left.
Getting swept by your arch rival isn't an enviable feeling. Going four years without beating your arch rival in your home stadium might be worse.
Over the last four seasons, Ole Miss is 2-14 against Mississippi State. The Bulldogs have won six straight games in Oxford for the first time since 1948-50. The Bulldogs have also won four straight in the Governor's Cup. For some reason, one of the winningest and most accomplished senior classes in Ole Miss history has never been able to conquer the Mississippi State hurdle.
Take this not as an offering of any solution. Hard as they may be to find, there are some factors of baseball that can't be explained with stats or analytics. Mississippi State has simply had Ole Miss' number for the past four years.
How big of a tumble did Ole Miss take in the polls after getting swept? Let's take a look:
And, for the sake of knowledge, here's a look at where Ole Miss sits in the SEC standings after the rough week:
For most of 2019, Ole Miss' bullpen has been the Rebels' saving grace. But over the last two weeks, the bullpen hasn't been able to play up to the mark it established over the first three months of the season.
In the Rebels' last six games, bullpen arms have pitched 20.1 innings with an ERA of 11.51 and a WHIP of 2.07. This has included alternatively stellar and unremarkable outings from Austin Miller and Parker Caracci, the Rebels' most reliable bullpen fixtures, and downright regrettable showings from the likes of Zack Phillips and Max Cioffi, who have ERAs of 27.00 and 108.00 in their last two appearances respectively.
The one shining spot in the bullpen over this stretch has been junior Houston Roth. Roth has pitched four times since May 1, logging seven shutout innings with seven hits allowed, no walks and seven strikeouts.
Senior outfielder Ryan Olenek missed all three of Ole Miss' games this weekend — and his Senior Day ceremony — with what was officially described as sickness. There has been no update as of yet about whether Olenek will be ready to play on Tuesday when the Rebels next take the field, or on Thursday when the Tennessee series begins. If he can't go, expect continued reps for freshman Josh Hall in centerfield with the occasional use of utility man Anthony Servideo in the spot.
For as veteran as a team as Ole Miss has this season, freshmen have contributed far more than anyone would've expected. Here's a breakdown of the number for the Rebels' four most contributive first years this season:
Ole Miss shortstop Grae Kessinger and third baseman Tyler Keenan were both named as finalists for the Ferriss Trophy on Monday. The Ferriss Trophy is awarded to the most outstanding college baseball player in Mississippi yearly, and for 2019 Kessinger and Keenan will contend against Mississippi State pitcher Ethan Small, Mississippi State outfielder Jake Mangum and Southern Miss outfielder Matt Wallner.
Kessinger is batting .355 this season with 17 doubles and he's reached base safely in 40 straight games, while Keenan leads Ole Miss with 11 home runs and 55 RBI.
The Rebels return to action on Tuesday night at 6:30 p.m. in Jonesboro, Ark., against Arkansas State before traveling to Knoxville for its final SEC series of the season against Tennessee. The Tennessee series begins on Thursday at 6 p.m. in a game that will be televised on the SEC Network.
Contact Nick Suss at 601-408-2674 or nsuss@gannett.com. Follow @nicksuss on Twitter.
Ole Miss’ Thomas Dillard (6) celebrates with teammates after hittinga two-run home run during the fourth inning of a Southeastern Conference tournament NCAA college baseball game against Auburn, Friday, May 25, 2018, in Hoover, Ala. (AP Photo/Butch Dill)
