Global analytical company Crisil said on Monday that its research expects headline inflation, measured by the consumer price index (CPI) to rise 60 basis points (bps) to 4 per cent this fiscal from 3.4 per cent in fiscal 2019.This base case assumes food inflation rising to 3 per cent from an abnormal low of 0.1 per cent. To be sure, this is a largely statistical low-base effect at play.However, the rise in food prices may well remain subdued on a sequential basis for two reasons. One, the Indian Meteorological Department has suggested a well-distributed monsoon this year.Two, global food prices are expected to decline in 2019, as projected by the International Monetary Fund and World Bank.The CPI-based gauge has now undershot the Reserve Bank of India (RBI)'s the medium-term target of 4 per cent for two straight fiscals. The sharp decline in fiscal 2019 left analysts scratching their heads.In a report titled 'Whither inflation?' CRISIL proffered two inflation scenarios for this ...
