After crunching the numbers, here are the win probabilities and possible bets for UFC 237 tonight in Rio.
The win probabilities for UFC 237’s six qualifying matchups are in. Here are the estimated odds for each bout where both fighters have at least four fully-documented prior fights and aren’t heavyweights. For statistical overload on the distance, clinch, and ground alternative stats behind Namajunas-Andrade and Aldo-Volkanovski, see Tuesday’s piece.
Jessica Andrade (54.3%) over Rose Namajunas
Anderson Silva (56.3%) over Jared Cannonier
Jose Aldo (57.1%) over Alexander Volkanovski
Irene Aldana (57.0%) over Bethe Correia
Warlley Alves (56.0%) over Sergio Moraes
Clay Guida (80.2%) over B.J. Penn
Diego Ferreira (would’ve been 67.5%) over Francisco Trinaldo
Current Bankroll: $10,152.02
No-Human-Error Bankroll: $10,549.39
The fight computer doesn’t have any bets as of this writing (10:55am PT). Enjoy the glorious fights!
Note: This is an experiment and entertainment. Do not bet on the fights using these numbers. Taking sensible gambles with an edge over time is similar to investing. But if I’ve made a mistake somewhere, those same gambles without an edge become sucker bets. Let me be the possible sucker. You’ve been warned.
Paul writes about MMA analytics and officiating at Bloody Elbow and MMA business at Forbes. Follow him @MMAanalytics. Fight data provided by FightMetric.
