New York Mets starting pitcher Noah Syndergaard hoped to get his season back on track Saturday night against the Milwaukee Brewers. Instead, he fell deeper into his recent struggles by allowing five earned runs on 10 hits (two home runs), three walks, and five strikeouts in five innings.
This appearance marked the third straight time Syndergaard failed to complete more than five innings, and of his six total starts, he’s allowed fewer than four runs just once. That’s all led to an unusual 6.35 ERA and 1.47 WHIP from the 26-year-old right-hander.
Has he experienced a bit of bad luck? Well, sure — it’s a bit weird to see Thor produce a 15.6% line-drive rate, 51.0% ground-ball rate, and a 29.6% soft-hit rate to go along with a .376 BABIP, which is among the highest in baseball when looking at qualified pitchers. However, he’s also allowed home runs more often than normal. Through 34 innings, Syndergaard has already surrendered five dingers. Between 2016 and 2018 (368.1 innings), he allowed 20.
When digging into his profile a bit more, it seems as though the hurler’s struggles could be rooted in what he’s sending toward the plate and how frequently he’s doing so.
Syndergaard was one of a few Mets hurlers that dominated quality of contact in 2018, and a noticeable trend from the tall righty was a decrease in fastball usage (four-seamers/sinkers) in exchange for more secondary pitches. Below is a breakdown of how his pitch usage has varied since debuting in 2015.
| Year | FB% | SL% | CB% | CH% |
|---|---|---|---|---|
| 2015 | 61.7% | 2.1% | 22.0% | 14.1% |
| 2016 | 59.1% | 21.2% | 8.5% | 11.2% |
| 2017 | 51.1% | 19.9% | 10.5% | 18.6% |
| 2018 | 53.6% | 20.9% | 9.8% | 15.7% |
| 2019 | 60.4% | 17.5% | 6.6% | 15.5% |
While his 22.0% strikeout rate and 11.1% swinging-strike rate on four-seamers would represent substantial improvement from 2018, opposing hitters are still having success against it. They’ve posted an .886 OPS and 138 wRC+ when facing the pitch so far this year, and they’ve been even better against the sinker (1.121 OPS, 197 wRC+).
That’s an issue when those pitches are easily the ones Syndergaard uses most frequency, but historically speaking, he hasn’t done most of his damage with those two offerings. Since debuting in 2015, the opposition has posted a 98 wRC+ against his four-seamer and a 122 wRC+ against his sinker.
What’s made Syndergaard the big leaguer he’s become are his secondary pitches, which he’s seemingly gotten away from when looking at his current pitch mix.
Velocity has never been a problem for Thor, especially when that conversation is centered on his fastball. Among starting pitchers with at least 500 innings since 2015, Syndergaard’s average fastball velocity of 97.6 mph is the best in baseball. Gerrit Cole is a distant second at 95.9 mph.
High velocity is a great tool to have, but it’s not as unique these days — there are tons of hurlers that can pump their fastball into the upper 90s on a consistent basis. Big-league hitters eventually get the timing down and take advantage of mistakes. Having effective secondary pitches is what separates the good pitchers from the great ones.
When looking at his career production, Syndergaard has gotten a lot of mileage out of his slider, curveball, and changeup, but his slider stands head-and-shoulders above the rest. Upon amping up his usage in 2016, opposing hitters have struggled against it (24 wRC+ in ’16, -2 in ’17, 32 in ’18).
The results have been typical for Noah’s slider so far this season (.517 OPS and 48 wRC+ against), but clearly, the usage is down, along with his curveball. Watching those percentages go down would make one think he’s at least getting more predictable with the trajectory of his pitches.
After Saturday’s start, Syndergaard provided an interesting quote about the feel of the baseballs and how it seems to be impacting how his breaking pitches:
Noah Syndergaard says he's losing faith in his off-speed pitches:
"Every time I get a new baseball out there, it feels like I'm holding an ice cube" pic.twitter.com/qtGlOuPAsJ
— SNY (@SNYtv) April 28, 2019
Syndergaard averaged 92.0 mph on his slider last year, and that number has dipped down to 88.7 mph so far in ’19. The same can be said about his curveball — 83.1 mph in ’18, 80.9 mph in ’19. On the flip side, his fastball velocity (97.6 mph) and changeup velocity (90.8 mph) are both slightly up.
Could the chilly weather have been an issue on Saturday? Well, sure, but the issue about baseballs becoming slicker has also been a problem among pitchers for a number of years. It’s not like he’s the only hurler that’s had to figure out a way to adjust to what’s going on.
He’ll have to find a way through this, and it’ll probably take some time (clearly, he hasn’t found an answer yet). Putting the blame on the baseballs doesn’t solve anything, but Syndergaard is obviously frustrated, and it’s gotten to the point where his confidence in throwing his slider or curveball at all has been negatively impacted.
Whatever the solution is, pitching coach Dave Eiland needs to help his right-hander find it quickly. Once that happens, it should have a ripple effect on the rest of Syndergaard’s pitches, especially his fastball.
