David V. Gioe
Security, Americas
PRESIDENT DONALD Trump’s recent decision to withdraw U.S. forces from Syria (and a dramatic reduction from Afghanistan as well) may signal a 2019 that sees a contraction of the American empire, but it may equally enable and communicate a redistribution of the U.S. military to focus on European security. As political science professor Zachary Selden has argued, “rather than weakening, the U.S. military commitment to Europe has actually increased during Trump’s presidency...” For instance, Polish president Andrzej Duda reportedly offered to name an American base in Poland after President Trump during his visit this past September. Given Poland’s fraught history of being caught between hammer and anvil, it is understandable that Duda would seek hard and permanent American combat power on his territory. Duda stated he was “convinced that such a decision lies in the Polish interest and in the interest of the United States.” This may make sound strategic sense from Warsaw, but is it in America’s interest?
In a recent commentary for Defense One, scholars Michael Hunzeker and Alexander Lanoszka argue that this new frontier outpost on Russia’s doorstep is a “good idea” and “would be worthwhile” from an American optic. Why? “A base there will deter Russian aggression and reassure our allies in Poland and the Baltic region.” The authors give four reasons why forward-deployed troops would be in America’s national interest. Specifically, such a move would deter Russia, save American lives in the event of a conflict, burnish Washington’s commitment to NATO’s Russia-facing border, and signal that America helps those who help themselves. Indeed, given President Trump’s oft-repeated frustration with free riders under American security umbrellas, that Duda has reportedly offered up billions in financial contributions is certainly a sweetener that would get American political attention.
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