Bettors are giving Pete Buttigieg the same 2020 primary odds as Bernie Sanders and Joe Biden
Pete Buttigieg is surging in the polls and the betting markets.
The South Bend, Indiana, mayor officially announced his 2020 presidential bid on Sunday, and an Emerson poll the next morning showed the once-longshot had surged to third place in the overflowing Democratic field. The top two competitors, Sen. Bernie Sanders (I-Vt.) followed by former Vice President Joe Biden, saw polling numbers that dwarfed Buttigieg's 9 percent. But when it came to betting predictions, PredictIt had Buttigieg on top by midday Monday.
Bettors on PredictIt now think Pete Buttigieg is the most likely Democratic nominee*. https://t.co/UD0zTmIz2j
* Citing prediction markets is not necessarily an endorsement of the wisdom of said markets. pic.twitter.com/CStCrMmE9x— Nate Silver (@NateSilver538) April 15, 2019
On PredictIt, bettors confident that a certain candidate will win buy shares for the displayed "yes" price. Prices get higher as more people agree with a certain bet — in this case, when they started believing Buttigieg would win the primary. He was sitting at 17 cents a share just a week ago. The odds captured above shifted slightly by 5 p.m. EST, when Sanders regained his lead with 21-cent share. Biden and Buttigieg, though, were still tied at 20 cents.
Over on ElectionBettingOdds.com, Buttigieg is in a solid third place with bettors giving him a 15.7 percent chance of winning the primary. Sanders is on top with 21.5 percent, while Sen. Kamala Harris (D-Calif.) is right behind with 17.2 percent as of 5 p.m. EST. Biden, who still has yet to announce, is a few points below Buttigieg at 12.5 percent.