The Hanoi Summit – We Asked James Holmes What Happens Next in U.S.-North Korea Relations

James Holmes

Security, Asia

"Managing this brave new world demands strategic dexterity of a high order."

Baseball sage Yogi Berra once wisecracked that “it’s tough to make predictions—especially about the future.” But while events may confound efforts at detailed prophecy, the broad contours of U.S.-North Korea relations are coming into view. North Korea will disarm neither comprehensively nor irrevocably; the United States will not attempt forcible disarmament unless Pyongyang strikes first; and Washington will put in place diplomatic, economic, and military measures meant to deter Pyongyang from mischief-making the White House deems intolerable.

Welcome to the second nuclear age. Doomsday weapons are fewer in number than during the Cold War, thankfully. But states of all shapes, sizes, and cultures now field them, and they configure and deploy their arsenals very differently. Managing this brave new world demands strategic dexterity of a high order.

In fact, deterring North Korea—a small, impoverished, yet heavily armed antagonist—demands a strategy no less intricate than the one devised to face down godless Soviet communists. Why? Well, the geometry of nuclear deterrence differs radically from the Cold War, when roughly symmetrical adversaries menaced one another with threats of mutually assured destruction. So does the geography of deterrence. Koreans ruefully describe their peninsula as a “shrimp among whales,” a plaything or battleground for great powers. That was an apt metaphor for centuries.

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