Selection Sunday is now less than a month away. Power conference tournaments will tip in just three weeks. But in the coming days week, three showdowns that this season has been begging for will finally arrive. Each will significantly affect future projections.
Thanks to some seriously backloaded conference scheduling that would make HBO blush, this week sees the first meetings of 2019 for two of college basketball’s most anticipated annual rivalries. First up on Wednesday night, this bracket’s No. 1 overall seed, the Duke Blue Devils, hosts Tobacco Road archrival North Carolina Tar Heels, currently on line No. 2. Then, on Sunday afternoon, we have the first of two Michigan State Spartans-Michigan Wolverines showdowns in a two-week span. Those in-state rivals currently share the Big Ten lead and join the Tar Heels on seed line two.
And those aren’t the only two huge, potentially bracket-altering showdowns lurking this week. For the second Saturday in a row, the Tennessee Volunteers will hit the road for their first matchup of the season with a fellow SEC contender. But after their loss to the Kentucky Wildcats at Rupp Arena, the pressure will be on Rick Barnes’ Vols as they visit Baton Rouge for their lone scheduled contest with the LSU Tigers. Tennessee remains on the top line despite their Saturday setback, but that’s not likely to be the case with a loss to the Bayou Bengals.
This week’s results could really shake up what’s become a rather stagnant top portion of the bracket, even if today’s top line features a slight change. Duke remains at the top, but he Virginia Cavaliers jumped Tennessee into the second spot overall, with the Gonzaga Bulldogs following the Vols in fourth. Once again, Kentucky is the top No. 2 seed, followed by Michigan, UNC and Michigan State.
On seed line No. 3, last week’s quartet remains in place, though the Kansas Jayhawks, Houston Cougars and Marquette Golden Eagles have all jumped the Selection Committee’s top third seed, the Purdue Boilermakers. LSU leads the No. 4 seeds, followed by the Nevada Wolf Pack, Iowa State Cyclones and Wisconsin Badgers.
Looking at the bracket as a whole, we start by looking at the left side of the traditional bracket (East and West), followed by the right (South and Midwest).
Note: Auto bid holders in this section are noted by the conference names in parentheses. Arrows indicate movement up or down the seed list. New entrants are marked with an asterisk.
(1) Duke Blue Devils (ACC) vs. (↓16) Bucknell Bison (Patriot)
(8) Ole Miss Rebels vs. (↓9) Ohio State Buckeyes
(5) Kansas State Wildcats (Big 12) vs. (12) New Mexico State Aggies (WAC)
(4) Nevada Wolf Pack (MW) vs. (13) Vermont Catamounts (America East)
(↓6) Louisville Cardinals vs. (11) VCU Rams
(3) Marquette Golden Eagles (Big East) vs. (14) Radford Highlanders (Big South)
(7) Baylor Bears vs. (↓10) Lipscomb Bisons
(2) Michigan Wolverines (Big Ten) vs. (*15) Texas State Bobcats (Sun Belt)
(1) Gonzaga Bulldogs (WCC) vs. (16) Prairie View A&M Panthers (SWAC)/Norfolk State Spartans (MEAC)
(↑8) Wofford Terriers (SoCon) vs. (↑9) Texas Longhorns
(↑5) Iowa Hawkeyes vs. (12) Belmont Bruins (OVC)
(↑4) LSU Tigers vs. (13) Hofstra Pride (CAA)
(↑6) Mississippi State Bulldogs vs. (11) NC State Wolfpack
(3) Houston Cougars (American) vs. (↑14) UC Irvine Anteaters (Big West)
(7) Washington Huskies (Pac-12) vs. (↑10) Seton Hall Pirates
(2) Michigan State Spartans vs. (15) Montana Grizzlies (Big Sky)
(1) Virginia Cavaliers vs. (16) St. Francis (Pa.) Red Flash (NEC)/Canisius Golden Griffins (MAAC)
(8) Buffalo Bulls vs. (↓9) Auburn Tigers
(↑5) Florida State Seminoles vs. (*12) Liberty Flames (ASUN)
(4) Iowa State Cyclones vs. (13) Yale Bulldogs (Ivy)
(↓6) Villanova Wildcats vs. (↓*11) TCU Horned Frogs/UCF Knights
(3) Purdue Boilermakers vs. (14) Bowling Green Falcons (MAC)
(↓7) Virginia Tech Hokies vs. (↓10) Oklahoma Sooners
(2) Kentucky Wildcats vs. (15) Northern Kentucky Norse (Horizon)
(1) Tennessee Volunteers (SEC) vs. (16) Sam Houston State Bearkats (Southland)
(↑8) St. John’s Red Storm vs. (↓9) Syracuse Orange
(5) Texas Tech Red Raiders vs. (12) Davidson Wildcats (A 10)
(4) Wisconsin Badgers vs. (13) Old Dominion Monarchs (C-USA)
(6) Maryland Terrapins vs. (↓11) Arizona State Sun Devils/Alabama Crimson Tide
(3) Kansas Jayhawks vs. (14) South Dakota State Jackrabbits (Summit)
(7) Cincinnati Bearcats vs. (↑10) Minnesota Golden Gophers
(2) North Carolina Tar Heels vs. (*15) Missouri State Bears (MVC)
Notes on today’s projection:
Last Four Byes: Minnesota, Oklahoma,, VCU, NC State
Last Four IN: TCU, Arizona State, Alabama, UCF
First Four OUT: Florida, Utah State, Butler, Temple
Next Four Out: Nebraska, Clemson, Furman, Saint Mary’s
New Today: Canisius, Liberty, Missouri State, Texas State, UCF
Leaving Today: Butler, Clemson, Loyola Chicago, Monmouth, UT Arlington
Bids by Conference: 8 ACC, 8 Big 12, 8 Big Ten, 7 SEC, 4 Big East, 3 American, 2 Atlantic 10, 2 ASUN, 2 MAC, 2 Pac-12, 22 one-bid conferences
The thing that struck me the most when putting together today’s projection was how confident I feel about seed lines one through eight with less than a month to go. Beyond that point, the national picture still feels unsettled. But that doesn’t necessarily mean that the bubble is expanding. In fact, the past week saw a slew of power conference teams on the fringe of the bid picture fall away, largely because of an epidemic of failure when opportunities were there to be seized.
While a few power teams did pick up vital wins to boost their hopes, like Florida (at Alabama), Butler (over DePaul), Temple (at USF) and Nebraska (which has suddenly managed to win two straight just before their toughest stretch begins Saturday with a visit from Purdue), the focus of the bubble has shifted. You’ll notice a trio of mid-majors are lurking among the First Eight Out. So not only do we have two MAC and Atlantic Sun bids this week — the latter is thanks to Lipscomb sticking around as an at-large following a midweek loss to Liberty, but two Mountain West, Southern and West Coast bids can’t be ruled out.
I’m not quite ready to declare this the “year of the mid-major at-large bounty,” but with the strength of teams like Buffalo, Lipscomb and Wofford; VCU managing to win needed games when so many other bubble teams simply can’t; and Furman and Utah State largely keeping themselves out of trouble in the loss column, it’s becoming increasingly likely that some unexpected names will be called on the evening of March 17.
While I’ll have another bubble update here on Friday, starting tomorrow I’ll have a daily updated seed list over at Blogging the Bracket.