Patriots vs. Chiefs AFC Championship Game odds and trends
The Kansas City Chiefs host the New England Patriots as modest betting favorites at sportsbooks on Sunday with a trip to the Super Bowl on the line.
The Kansas City Chiefs are 3-1 against the spread in their last four games against the New England Patriots but just 3-7 straight up in their last 10 games against them. The Chiefs will try to earn their first Super Bowl berth since the 1969 season with a win over the Patriots this Sunday.
Kansas City is a 3-point home favorite on the NFL odds at sportsbooks monitored by OddsShark.com. In their last nine instances as a betting favorite in the playoffs, the Chiefs are 2-7 ATS.
New England Patriots at Kansas City Chiefs
When: Sunday, January 20, 6:40 p.m. ET
Where: Arrowhead Stadium, Kansas City, Missouri
Betting Line / Total: Kansas City -3 / 55.5 Points
Kansas City Chiefs
The Chiefs exorcised some of their playoff demons with a convincing 31-13 win over the Indianapolis Colts last Saturday, dominating the previously red-hot Colts on both sides of the ball throughout the game.
Kansas City, second on the updated Super Bowl odds at +275, appears to be playing its best defense of the season at the right time while the league’s top offense has not missed a beat scoring at least 31 points in each of its last three games. Patrick Mahomes passed for 352 yards and four touchdowns in Kansas City’s 43-40 loss in New England earlier this season.
Even after last weekend’s impressive win, the Chiefs are still just 2-11 SU and ATS over their last 12 postseason games per the OddsShark NFL Database.
New England Patriots
New England scored a touchdown on each of its first four drives en route to blowing the Los Angeles Chargers away 41-28 last Sunday. In doing so, the Patriots improved to 24-4 SU under Tom Brady in games played in weather under 30 degrees Fahrenheit as this Sunday’s matchup in Kansas City will be.
The Patriots went a perfect 9-0 SU and 7-2 ATS at home this season and will now try to improve on their 3-5 SU and ATS road record this weekend.
Sunday night’s total is set at 55.5 points at NFL betting sites. The OVER is 4-0 in the last four games between New England and Kansas City.
If Tom Brady and Bill Belichick didn’t have such an incredible history of success in the postseason and Andy Reid and the Chiefs didn’t have so many playoff letdowns in their past, a team as good as Kansas City would probably be a bigger favorite at home in this one.
But the past has certainly had an influence on the minds of the betting public, and time will soon tell if the mental side of things has an impact on this game as well.
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