With a perfect storm matchup that's off the charts in their favor, the Patriots will run all over the Lions.
Welcome to the Week 5 Cheat Sheet. That slight unease you're feeling is likely the residual effects of watching last night's field goal contest between the Colts and Broncos. It seemed like on every play, quarterbacks Matt Ryan or Russell Wilson both needed just a split second more time in the pocket. An extra beat to find the open man. That shorter window translated into Wilson and Ryan both missing on a lot of throws and many throws seemed to be forced. The narrative a year ago for both quarterbacks was that the offensive lines weren't any good. They weren't giving their quarterbacks enough time. The offenses were one-dimensional. And so on. This leads me to my first topic of the cheat sheet.
What we have here is a tale of two quarterbacks, Matt Ryan and Russell Wilson, both dealing with similar struggles on their new teams, playing in offenses where they can't seem to get on the same page.
But it's not all their fault. Broncos pass-catchers have dropped 12 of Wilson's passes through five games. By far the highest drop percentage over the last five seasons. Wilson's accuracy is also at a career-low with just a 59.4% rate of his passes being on target. Ryan is dealing with a similar struggle as he has just 57% of his throws on target. Neither QB has ever had a percentage lower than 75% going back to 2019.
Ryan struggled with ball security on Thursday night with two fumbles, now up to an astounding 11 fumbles in five games—a total that would make Daniel Jones blush.
Wilson and Ryan are both severely limited with only a 1.9-second pocket time, at least half a second less than each of their last four years in Seattle and Atlanta, respectively. Through five games, Wilson is on pace to be sacked 54 times. Not to be outdone, Ryan is on pace for 71 sacks. The NFL record goes back to 2002, when David Carr of the Texans was sacked 76 times. Wilson is at career-lows in intended air yards per attempt (8.5), completed air yards per completion (6.1) and completed air yards per attempt (3.6), so even when he does get a pass out, it's not traveling as far and the completions aren't going as far. Ryan is also dealing with career-lows in all the same stats (6.2, 5.9 and 3.9).
What's the solution? Fewer plays downfield. More quick-hitting plays. Getting the running backs and tight ends more involved. Simplify, execute. It's not going to get any better for Wilson as he also lost his left tackle, Garrett Bolles, with a broken leg on Thursday night. Bolles will be out for a minimum of six weeks, likely longer.
If you have Wilson or Ryan on your roster, hopefully you've found alternatives because while I can't imagine it getting any worse, I also don't see either offense's situations getting any better.
In one of the most lopsided matchups on paper that I've seen in some time, we've got a potential perfect rushing storm headed to Gillette Stadium. The Patriots have a 23.6 rush DVOA, ranking first. The Lions rank dead last in rush defense DVOA. To make matters worse, New England will also be without their starting quarterback, Mac Jones, and instead will be starting a fourth-round rookie named Bailey Zappe. Remember that windy game last year when Jones only attempted three passes. Well it's not gusts that're coming, it's two downhill rushers named Damien Harris and Rhamondre Stevenson. I like Stevenson a little more because he's been more active in the passing game and I imagine Zappe will be checking down frequently. But both runners have the potential to pop off.
The Lions defense is allowing 50% of runs inside the 5-yard line go for touchdowns and they're allowing 10 runs inside the five—per game! The Patriots average five runs inside the five per game and 80% of their runs inside the five go for touchdowns. New England is tied for seventh in the NFL in yards before contact (1.46). The numbers just go on forever.
The Lions have allowed running backs to gain 467 rushing yards on 88 carries (5.6 yards per carry, most) with eight rushing TDs (most). They also rank last in percentage of rushes allowed that go for a first down (33.9%).
I expect both Harris and Stevenson to have great games.
If he plays—which is a big if, because he hasn't practiced yet—Week 5 should provide sweet respite for Kyle Pitts managers. Yes, I believe this matchup against the Bucs swings in his favor. Tampa Bay allows the sixth-most points to tight ends. And while Pitts isn't your typical in-line TE, injuries across the Bucs' secondary also lead me to believe he'll make plays. Tampa Bay CB Carlton Davis, the Bucs’ No. 2 corner, was downgraded to a limited practice on Thursday after a full practice on Wednesday. That's never a good sign. FS Logan Ryan did not practice Wednesday or Thursday. ILB Devin White has graded lower than 50% in coverage three times, according to PFF—most recently when the Bucs were torched by Travis Kelce for nine receptions for 92 yards and a score in Week 4. The Bucs also have a fierce rush defense that should force the Falcons to throw more. TB allows the second-fewest rushing yards through five games.
Every week, I'll highlight eight players (two at each position) that I like who are rostered in less than 50% of Yahoo leagues. You can think of them as desperation plays or salary punts in DFS contests.
Before setting your lineups, make sure you check out some of the world-class fantasy lowdown from our SI Fantasy analysts:
