A THIRD wave of Covid-19 could wash over the UK as infections from Europe continue to rise, scientists have warned.
Some experts have however predicted that the wave could be more of a “ripple” and that it’s unlikely the UK will see a spike in infections until Christmas.
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One scientist this week said that a third wave of Covid could hit in July.
Professor Calum Semple, Professor of Outbreak Medicine at the University of Liverpool said infections could occur in people in the summer who are less susceptible to severe disease.
He said: “The concern at present is that in countries where there’s less vaccination and a very strong third wave, that’s the perfect breeding ground for further variants of concern.”
Prime Minister Boris Johnson this week warned that Brits could “soon feel the effect”, of rising infection rates currently being seen across Europe.
He said that even though Britain has steamed ahead with the vaccine rollout, it wouldn’t be able to escape infections from the continent.
So far in the UK over 28.9 million Brits have received a first dose of either the Pfizer/BioNTech jab or the Oxford/AstraZeneca offering – with over 2.7 million having had a second.
Britain saw a huge rise in cases in late December amid the spread of the Kent variant, which now makes up a significant number of infections in Europe.
The lead scientist of the ZOE Symptom Tracker app, Professor Tim Spector, today said that if cases rise in the UK – it will be at the end of the year.
Speaking to Times Radio he said: “There will be further cases of Covid, and I believe they’re more likely to happen towards the end of the year, when these kind of viruses do best.
“Some people’s vaccinations will be running out and people will be together indoors once more.
“So I think some increase, I wouldn’t call it a wave but I think it might hopefully be more like a ripple.”
If the rise in infections is more of a “ripple” than a “third wave”, then it could mean that Brits could enjoy more normality over the summer months as if infections stay low – then Mr Johnson’s roadmap out of lockdown will be able to continue uninterrupted.
Many of Europe’s cases are said to be the Kent variant – and some from South Africa too.
This coupled with their slow vaccination programme has meant infections are still soaring.
While Europe has been portrayed as a big threat to the UK’s coming out of lockdown, the virus is still circulating here.
Data from the ONS shows that here could be more than 100,000 infectious people in the UK.
Data from the ZOE Symptom study app revealed that cases in the UK have increased by seven per cent in the last week.
Going from 4,470 daily cases to 4,785.
However that’s still down 93 per cent from a peak of 69,000 at the beginning of the year and the experts estimate that around 1 in 918 people in the UK currently have symptomatic Covid.
One expert said that an uptick in cases could be down to the fact that testing is now more readily available for people who have to leave home for work.
More testing has also been carried out since kids have gone back to school.
Prof Christina Pagel, from University College London said while testing and the reopening of schools can account for some of the new infections – it can’t all be down to those two factors.
Speaking to the BBC she said that this could be start of an upward trend when it comes to infections.
She explained that many parents who have children of school age will still not have had their first dose of a vaccine.
This means that kids who catch the virus at school could in turn pass it onto their parents who have no protection against fighting the virus.
Prof Pagel said that the break in Easter would help slow the spread – but that this could be temporary.
Her comments come after England’s chief medical officer, Professor Chris Whitty, also warned of the possibility of a third wave.
He warned that Covid will “find the people who have not been vaccinated”, or for whom the jab does not work.
He said the public should be aware there will be “further deaths” on top of the 125,000 so far, and they only need to look at the rest of Europe, where cases are begining to creep up again, to know the crisis is not “over”.
Speaking to MPs in the Science and Technology Committee earlier this month Prof Whitty said: “What we are going to see is as things are opening up, what all the modelling suggests is that at some point we will get a surge in virus.
“Whether that happens, we hope it doesn’t happen soon, but it might for example later in the summer if we open up gradually, or if there is a seasonal effect, it might happen over the next autumn and winter.
“But all the modelling suggests there will be a further surge and that will find the people who either have not been vaccinated, or the vaccine has not worked.
“Some of them will end up in hospital, and sadly some of them will die. And that’s just the reality of where we are with the current vaccination.”
At the start of the first and second wave of Covid there was a main variant in ciruclation.
Now there are others to consider such as the UK variant, the Brazilian and also the South African variants.
This is the first time that restrictions have been eased with all these variants in circulation.
With more and more people having a jab – more people are protected from the illness.
Also as the virus has now been circulating for a year – many people will have antibodies.
Respiratory diseases thrive in the winter, which is why Prof Spector today said it would be most likely that infections would surge over Christmas.
Prof Whitty also said this week that infections would likely rise in the winter months.
He said while the path does “look better” Brits should still expect there to be bumps in the road.
This means that if there is a third wave, the country may not feel the full impact as in the first and second due to protections in place such as vaccines and surge testing.
Prof Whitty added that local outbreaks, as well as variants on concern taking hold in certain areas could leave some areas vulnerable.
As many experts debate the possibility of a third wave, it was today revealed that the R rate could be as high as 1 in some areas.
The R rate – the number of people an infected person will pass Covid on to – is between 0.7 to 0.9 across the UK, and between 0.8 and 1.0 in England.
A lower R rate is preferable for experts deciding on the easing of lockdown restrictions.
When the R is below 1, it means transmission is low enough for the epidemic to shrink – but greater than 1, it suggests the outbreak is growing.
The values are shown as a range, which means the true R rate most likely lies somewhere between the upper and lower estimates.
Looking at the R rate on a regional basis and some areas of England could have an R rate as high as 1.
The North East and Yorkshire has the highest R rate and sits between 0.8 and 1.
This is followed by the East of England, the Midlands, the North West and the South East – each region has an R rate between 0.7 and 1.
London and the South West have the lowest R rates and currently sit between 0.7 and 0.9.
