Sen. JD Vance (R-Ohio) and Minnesota Gov. Tim Walz (D) are set to take to the debate stage next week at a critical moment in the presidential race, with more than a month to go before Election Day and polls showing a razor-tight race.
Both men face pressure to perform well, with Vance looking to make up lost ground after former President Trump’s rocky debate against Vice President Harris earlier this month and as he faces growing scrutiny over his controversial remarks. Meanwhile, Walz likely will be pressed over his and Harris’s liberal track records at a time when her campaign is tacking to the center.
While most observers note vice presidential debates haven’t moved the needle much in the past, they say this year could be different. Polls show a highly competitive race between Harris and Trump in the final stretch, and any big misstep or knockout blow by one of the vice presidential contenders could change the game.
"All the needle needs to be moved is 0.1 percent in either direction, and that could be the difference in four or five states," said Democratic strategist Steven Maviglio.
Vance and Walz will make their pitches to voters Tuesday night from the CBS News stage in New York City as Harris boasts a 4-point edge over Trump, according to the latest national averages from Decision Desk HQ and The Hill. Recent polls have also put her up by narrow margins in key swing states.
The vice president was widely seen as the winner of her debate with Trump earlier this month, although her slight lead nationally grew by just a fraction of a percentage point across some two dozen polls afterward, underscoring the tight contest and candidates’ uphill climb to tip the scales.
“Usually, when you have a vice presidential debate, the public views it sort of as an undercard — a secondary event,” said GOP strategist Ford O’Connell. “But in this case, both campaigns are fighting for inches on the electoral map. I think that's what makes this vice presidential debate different from many of the others that we've seen in the past.”
“It's so close that you don’t know, at the end of the day, what will make the difference and push one of the tickets over the other,” O’Connell said.
Trump and Harris are well-known political entities, but their running mates are relatively new to the national stage.
Vance, 40, is a Marine veteran and Yale Law School graduate who was catapulted into the national conversation with the success of his memoir, “Hillbilly Elegy.” He worked as a venture capitalist before lodging a bid for the Senate.
Walz, 60, is a former high school teacher and football coach who served in the National Guard before stepping into politics. He gained traction in the veepstakes talks earlier this year after going viral for his folksy branding of the Trump-Vance ticket as “weird.”
Both have touted their middle-class, Midwestern upbringings as they’ve entered the national spotlight. But when they face off on the debate stage next week — which they’re notably set to do standing up, a rare break from seated vice presidential debates — they’re likely to underscore their contrasts as they look to define themselves.
Walz has faced fire from the right over his progressive record as Minnesota governor, and he may have to parry critiques against the Biden-Harris administration. He’s also been criticized for how he’s represented his military service and his family’s struggle with infertility. But he’s heading into the showdown with better favorability than his GOP rival.
Polling from the Associated Press-NORC Center for Public Affairs Research suggests Vance has become more unpopular as voters get to know him, while Walz has gained popularity. The Ohio senator has faced sharp criticism for amplifying a false claim about Haitian migrants eating pets in a small Ohio town and for comments that the country was being run by “childless cat ladies.”
Vance is going in with “a lot of baggage” and “personally has a stake in reviving” his profile on the debate stage, said Leonard Steinhorn, a professor of public communication at American University.
He’ll also want to “do better than Trump did” against Harris, said Aaron Kall, the director of debate at the University of Michigan and editor of a book about Trump’s past debates.
“The vice presidential debate won't really move the gauge of the election, but they can stop the bleeding,” Kall said. "A solid performance by Vance can really help the campaign [following] ... a little bit of a setback after the presidential debate.”
Some experts are skeptical Tuesday night’s showdown, which is set to be moderated by “CBS Evening News” anchor Norah O’Donnell and “Face the Nation” moderator Margaret Brennan, could really change the game. Vice presidential debates have rarely made major waves, and vice presidents often stand in the shadows even once they get into office.
Still, in an already unprecedented election cycle, even more doubtful observers were open to the chance that a major gaffe or strong viral moment could roil the race.
“Every public appearance, especially one with such a massive, outsized audience, matters,” said Democratic strategist Jon Reinish. More than 67 million people tuned in to watch Harris and Trump debate, 15 million more than who viewed Trump and Biden.
Presidential historian Douglas Brinkley said on MSNBC this week this could be “the most important vice presidential debate” in U.S. history.
It could also be the last White House debate of the cycle. Harris was quick to call for a second presidential debate, but Trump said earlier this month he wouldn’t do another.
Both camps are expected to spend the coming days prepping. Transportation Secretary Pete Buttigieg is serving as a stand-in for Vance in his personal capacity, according to a source familiar. On the Trump side, Vance has turned to another Minnesotan, Rep. Tom Emmer (R), to stand in for the North Star State governor.
“This could be a final opportunity for the vice-presidential candidates to make the closing arguments for their campaigns in front of a very large audience that is even closer to the starting of early voting in several of the battleground states … and closer to Election Day, which is just around the corner,” Kall said.
