Perhaps the most broadly consequential case of the second Trump presidency is making its way through the bowels of the Supreme Court right now, with a ruling due next year. Trump’s sweeping tariffs, the largest since 1934, that year we all know and love for its wonderful economy, were enacted under the International Emergency Economic Powers Act (IEEPA). This obscure power was invoked by Richard Nixon in 1971 in response to rising inflation and the threat of a currency crisis, and until Trump, this was the first and only time it has been used. That was Nixon’s attempt to mitigate trade deficits with a 10% tariff as he unwound Bretton Woods, and it was upheld by the U.S. Court of Customs and Patent Appeals in 1975. Meanwhile, Trump’s tariffs have yet to meet a court that think they have any real legal standing over his claim of trade deficits that supposedly threaten national security. Yesterday, Costco filed a lawsuit against U.S. Customs and Border Protection (CBP), joining Revlon, Ray-Ban maker EssilorLuxottica, Kawasaki Motors, Yokohama Tire and Bumble Bee Foods in demanding that Trump pay them back over the tariffs they claim he illegally enacted.
This is not a challenge against the tariffs, that is a separate case already being deliberated, this is just a filing demanding that these companies get repaid should the Supreme Court find Trump’s tariffs to be unconstitutional. We won’t know their final answer until these self-appointed demigods give it early next year, but the November arguments in front of SCOTUS did not go well for Trump. Chief Justice John Roberts, this generation’s preeminent law skeptic, all of a sudden found respect for the Constitution, saying that Trump’s tariffs are “the imposition of taxes on Americans, and that has always been the core power of Congress.” Interesting how Trump’s very unpopular and economically damaging tariffs are apparently infringing on Congress’ inherent financial authority, but when it comes to money that Congress has already approved for starving children abroad that Trump wants to steal, John Roberts finds their Article I powers of the purse unpersuasive. What a fucking hack this guy is.
The era of John Roberts has destroyed the Supreme Court’s legitimacy as a legal institution, as anyone with half a brain in their head can patently see that these six Republican justices in fancy nightgowns view their role as GOP super legislators, not legal adjudicators. The law is only used as an after-the-fact justification for their political motives.
Costco filed this lawsuit because of an impending deadline where they will not be able to get their money back. The nature of how CBP collects tariffs means that it’s quite possible that SCOTUS could say the tariffs are illegal, but companies are not entitled to repayment. In the filing, Costco claims that “this action is necessary now because the entries for which Plaintiff paid tariffs imposed under authority of IEEPA will in general begin to become liquidated as early as December 15, 2025 (indeed, as of this filing, one such entry has already liquidated).” Don’t be surprised if you see more companies jump on board with these refund requests over the coming days, weeks and months, as Costco claims that “CBP denied Plaintiff’s request to extend liquidation for entries subject to IEEPA tariffs, thus necessitating the motion for a preliminary injunction.”
As bad as this looks for ol Donny Trump right now, never underestimate this super legislature’s servility to a mad King in the deep throes of senility. For all we know, Harlan Crow may buy Clarence Thomas and Sam Alito another private island for Christmas, and wouldn’t you know it, now the Supreme Court is back to agreeing with Trump that Article I of the Constitution is fake news. There are only two possible outcomes here, and both contain their own kind of shitshow. This bad idea can really only end badly, so let’s start with the likely less bad option for Trump.
Trump Loses
“People that are against Tariffs are FOOLS!” wrote president deals on TruthSocial last month. He, like others, could read the very obvious tea leaves the Republican justices put out there, and by all posting accounts, lost his shit over the next 24 hours. Richard Nixon invoked a balance-of-payments crisis when he first utilized the IEEPA, a decision upheld in Yoshida v. United States, but Trump’s national security claims do not seem to be taken as seriously.
“Based on the questions posed by the justices, the IEEPA tariffs appear to be in jeopardy,” said Damon Pike, a principal with BDO USA’s customs and trade services practice to Reuters last month.
So if he loses, then presumably, Costco and Revlon and everyone else who has filed and will file refund requests will be repaid. That money will come from the government’s checking account called the Treasury General Account, which said it had a balance of $677 billion to start the year. CBP claims they have collected $88 billion in tariffs, so to repay the full weight of this shitshow would require 13% of the starting TGA balance. This account has money moving in and out of it like a checking account, so think of this like an impending multi-car economic pileup on the highway where accounts payable entries are fighting for dollars flying around at routine intervals. Should the Supreme Court strike down these tariffs and grant Costco a refund, Treasury Secretary Scott Bessent and his lieutenants would spend much of next year herding accounting cats.
Those who didn’t file refund requests and like Costco, had one entry, or more than one entry liquidated, are in trouble. Historically the government has told companies like that, “tough shit.” There will be a lot of companies in the tough shit bucket by definition of who won’t file these refund requests, and I doubt they will go quietly if they see Costco and such getting paid back for Trump’s illegal taxation, per the Supreme Court.
That likely means more court cases and more litigation taking up 2026, and in our peacocking society, very likely a handful of tryhards who try to make a spectacle out of this mess. Twitter is going to be a sight to behold as the dropship bros annihilated by Trump’s China tariffs realize all they had to do was file a lawsuit against CBP to get their money back. The get rich quick schemes on Tik Tok will be truly unhinged. It will all make the Paycheck Protection Program mess look downright orderly by comparison.
Trump is already historically unpopular, and the circular firing squad forming in the House and Senate that some Republicans are walking away from will only become more intense as Congresspeople are forced to pick a side. Their choices will be between an increasingly sleepy and unpopular Trump, and the also unpopular GOP Supreme Court now anointing themselves as America’s financial heroes by unchaining us from Trump’s debunked 19th century economics. This outcome will only make Marjorie Taylor Greene more powerful and annoying.
Trump Wins
As always in Trumpology, your guiding thesis must be that we cannot wait to see how ol Donny Trump wriggles his way out of this one, and ah, well, nevertheless. The super legislature knew what they were doing in November. The Roberts Court is very aware of how their words are interpreted and how one person in particular would take them. That November hearing wasn’t a final decision, it was a negotiation like every GOPer opposed to Trump’s tariffs have tried with him this year. Trump’s tariffs are splitting Republicans off from MAGA and we have the polling to prove it, and the super legislature is no doubt concerned about keeping the GOP coalition from fracturing going into an election year as the Fed says they see inflationary pressures taking root because of Trump’s tariffs.
Roberts and his cronies must decide whether to try to continue their Weekend at Bernie’s ass coup through saving Trump and the economy from his most unpopular policy–risking enraging the mad King who will destroy the GOP himself if that’s what it takes to keep his cultish safe space intact–or they can support his massive tax increase and hope that the slow drip of him losing support is less damaging and the economy can continue to stay resilient in the face of tariff headwinds. Trump’s idiotic economic platform and SCOTUS’s unyielding support for his crime spree have ensured that the Roberts six will spend the coming months residing between a rock and a hard place.
The economic and political fallout are the only aspects of this case that they are seriously considering. Anyone who thinks that this Court is actually adjudicating on the merits of law at this point must also be expecting a jolly old man to slip down their chimney later this month. They’re a super legislature, not a Supreme Court. They don’t give a shit that Nixon’s case got upheld by the U.S. Court of Customs and Patent Appeals. That will be the patina of legitimacy they apply to this if they do reject this lawsuit against Trump’s utilization of the IEEPA, but that will not be the driving force behind their decision. They’re political operatives, not judges.
They’re Trump’s chief enablers too, so don’t rule out ol Donny wriggling out of this case next year. District courts run by Republicans appointed by Trump have been striking down his cases all year, only to see their rulings overturned at the super legislature, enraging the lower courts. This divergence is how you can tell for certain that the Supreme Court has gone rogue and the rule of law is not their primary motivation.
But there is one danger that exists in this decision tree that does not show up in the other, and I think we will get a good sense of how self-destructive the Roberts Court is in this case. An August Pew poll revealed 61 percent of Americans opposed to Trump’s tariffs. More Republicans disapprove of Trump’s tariffs (32%) than strongly approve (31%), and this is before they’ve really showed up in the economic data outside producers. It’s not hard to imagine how bad those numbers could get amidst a recession or just increased stagflationary pressures next year.
This is the dividing line in the GOP these days outside of support for an outright Nazi in Nick Fuentes, and with Costco and Revlon and other major companies filing refund requests, the Court will make a lot more enemies in capitalist society if they support Trump. Their own interests of self-preservation are opposed to Trump’s need to win everything.
Roberts and company can survive the GOP crumbling amidst an inevitable civil war into a yawning power vacuum created by Trump, but big money coming to an agreement with us on the left that the Roberts Court is a lawless institution opens a lot of doors to SCOTUS reform that striking Trump’s tariffs down don’t, and any kind of reform coming from the left or center would dilute Roberts’ power to decide what is and is not law. Money talks in America, and if Roberts decides that Trump is allowed to wriggle out of this one too, he may be seeding his own destruction amidst a future where major Court reform is not just supported, but financially funded by goliaths like Costco who just want their money back.
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