Research published by the Canadian Climate Institute has found that a system-wide shift from gas to electric heat is the lowest-cost path through the clean energy transition.
The report, called Heat Exchange: How today’s policy choices will drive or delay Canada’s transition to clean, reliable heat, noted that provincial government action will be necessary to protect reliability and avoid high costs for consumers as the energy transition accelerates.
The report found that changing the energy mix for building heat in both homes and businesses, as well as changing energy infrastructure to support the shift from gas to electricity, will be necessary to reduce emissions from buildings and meet Canada’s climate goals while also minimizing costs.
The report also noted that in all provinces and scenarios the Climate Institute examined, the lowest-cost pathway to net zero by 2050 for the economy results in electricity becoming the dominant energy supply for building heat.
“Expanding gas infrastructure to heat buildings today would be like investing heavily in a chain of video rental stores 15 years ago. Energy systems need to plan for the reality that is arriving on our doorstep. The smart approach to protect consumers and ensure affordable, reliable energy in the future is to grow the electricity system—not lock in more dependence on gas,” said Jason Dion, senior research director.
The report found that reaching net zero emissions in residential, commercial and institutional buildings means substantial declines in gas use in every province. According to the report, in places like Ontario, gas usage drops between 89 to 98 per cent from today’s levels while in Alberta, demand drops between 70 and 87 per cent.
According to the report, to meet net zero, 99 per cent of home heating in 2050 is projected to be entirely or mostly powered by electricity, including, in some cases, heat pumps backed up by gas in a hybrid system.
“Protecting consumers in the energy transition means making electricity the default in new buildings in most cases, instead of gas. While the infrastructure we’re building today will be with us for 40 to 60 years, this research shows that achieving climate goals will mean a shrinking role for gas well before then. A manageable transition that protects affordable and reliable building heating requires provinces to stop expanding gas networks now, and start planning for the future,” said Sachi Gibson, research director, mitigation.
The research found that a cost-effective energy transition in buildings will mean heat pumps are used to heat most homes by 2050. It also noted that while scarce low-carbon gases such as biomethane and hydrogen will likely see some use in industrial buildings,they are expected to play only a marginal role in heating commercial and residential buildings.
