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YEREVAN, June 28. /ARKA/. Cumulative growth in Armenia’s economic activity in the first four months of 2024 eased to 13.2% year over year, the Armenia Monthly Economic Update – June 2024 report by the World Bank revealed on Friday.
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“Real growth in economic activity slowed to 10.4 percent in April (yoy), down from an average of 14.3 percent in the first quarter of 2024. This was primarily driven by a halving of industrial output growth from 30 percent in Q1-24 (yoy) to 16.6 percent in April (yoy), also affected by moderation in the growth of gold and jewelry production,” the report said.
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Mining contracted by 15 percent (yoy) in April, while manufacturing growth decreased from 47 percent in the first quarter to 27 percent (yoy) in April. Service sector growth (excluding trade), which had moderated to 5 percent (yoy) in Q1-24, dropped to just 0.8 percent in April (yoy), according to the report.
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Trade continued to grow in April at almost the same pace as previous months (at 27.2 percent), and construction growth accelerated to 17.8 percent in April (yoy) compared to an average of 11.4 percent in Q1-24.
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On the demand side, net export was the main driver of the 9.2 percent GDP growth in Q1-24. “Consumption grew by 2.3 percent (yoy), a deceleration from 8 percent (yoy) growth in Q1-23, mostly driven by lower public consumption (yoy). Gross capital formation contracted by 25 percent (yoy) and contributed negatively to GDP growth in Q1-24,” the report said.
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The economic growth of Armenia in the state budget for 2024 is envisaged at 7%. The Central Bank of Armenia expects the country's economic growth in 2024 to be in the range of 6.1-6.8%. The World Bank expects the Armenian economy to grow by 5.5% in 2024, and by 4.9% in 2025. The IMF predicts 5% growth for the Armenian economy in 2024. The EBRD forecasts economic growth in Armenia of 6.2% in 2024 and 4.8% in 2025. ADB forecasts are 5.7% for 2024 and 6% for 2025. According to the forecast of the Fitch Ratings agency, the economic growth of Armenia in 2024 will be 6%, and 4.9% in 2025. SP forecasts 6.2% growth for the Armenian economy in 2024, and the UN expects the Armenian economy to grow by 5.2% in 2024 and 4.8% in 2025.nbsp;br
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