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The stakes are extremely high as the impact of fossil fuels on climate change goes to The Hague for hearings December 2-13, 2024 to determine whether nations are obligated to phase out fossil fuels. Will the esteemed court issue an opinion that truly impacts climate change?
The court’s opinion is expected in 2025.
{Special Notification: Antarctica is experiencing a frightening collapse that has polar scientists fearful and speaking out like never before. A link to an interview with James Woodford, a New Scientists’ reporter, who attended a recent emergency session with 450 polar scientists is found at the end of this article. Woodford: “Nobody could have foreseen Antarctic sea ice dropping off a cliff in the way that it has.”}
James Hansen (Earth Institute, Columbia University) and three climate scientists from the Netherlands, conducted a panel discussion December 9th, 2024 regarding the International Court of Justice at the Hague, as part of hearings from scores of nations before it issues its advisory opinion on the Obligations of States in Respect of Climate Change: “The key issue is whether international law requires nations to phase out production, distribution and use of fossil fuels and otherwise pay damages to the most vulnerable and hardest hit of nations.” (Source: James Hansen, International Court of Justice Proceedings in The Hague, December 9, 2024)
What if it is determined that “international law requires nations to phase out production, distribution and use of fossil fuels”? What happens next?
For starters, the setting for this all-important trial has been extensive on a worldly basis: “As of publication, 98 states and 12 international organizations have registered to participate in oral hearings at the court Dec. 2–13. The engagement conveys the urgency and gravity of the climate crisis, and the importance states place on setting straight what international law requires.” (Source: Courts May Be More Effective on Climate Action Than UN, Bloomberg Law, Nov. 22, 2024)
Potential benefits of the hearing before The Hague
The court’s opinion should prove to be an antidote to the political inertia overhanging UN Conference of the Parties (COP) affairs. This strikes at the heart of 30 years of do-nothing conferences because of politically oriented negotiated outcomes that dilute, obstruct, and/or reduce to the lowest common denominator, making UN COPs a laughingstock.
Also, the court can look beyond the UN climate convention or the Paris Agreement to identify responsibilities and duties, e.g., by relying upon longstanding customary international law.
And the court’s advisory opinion can have concrete effects by carrying weight as “authoritative interpretations of binding law.”
“The forthcoming legal opinions on climate change from the ICJ and Inter-American Court of Human Rights, should further clarify states’ obligations to curb drivers of the crisis—including through regulation of companies—and remedy mounting climate harms. They will also affirm the critical role of courts in enforcing ambitious climate action and accountability,” Ibid.
Significantly, ICJ advisory opinions can become part of “customary international law,” which is then legally binding.
Meanwhile, the world climate system has never been more vulnerable, to wit: Perilous Times on Planet Earth: 2024 The State of the Climate Report, 25 of 35 planetary vital signs are at record extremes. Two-thirds with record-extremes is viewed by climate scientists as a clear mandate for a planet “on the edge.”
Climate Science – One of History’s Great Analytical Triumphs
Superimposed on this extraordinary hearing at The Hague: “There has, of course, been a decades-long campaign aiming to discredit climate research and, in some instances, defame individual climate scientists. But if you step back from the smears, you realize that climatology has been one of history’s great analytical triumphs. Climate scientists correctly predicted, decades in advance, an unprecedented rise in global temperatures. They even appear to have gotten the magnitude more or less right.” (Source: Paul Krugman, The Stench of Climate Change Denial, The New York Times, May 27, 2024)
Climate deniers should take a moment to correlate their denialism with a remarkable stretch of scientists’ warnings hitting the mark, bullseye, on target. Yet, twenty-five percent (25%) of America’s congressional members are climate deniers. In sharp contrast to this demonstration of ignorant denialism, climate scientists have been spot-on.
Nevertheless, according to James Hansen: “Nations of the world meet at annual COP meetings (Conferences of the Parties), where they promise to reduce emissions to ‘net zero’ at some distant date, an almost meaningless pledge. There is no plan to actually stabilize climate…Global temperature took an unprecedented leap of half a degree Celsius in the past two years, which confounded the climate research community… We are headed to global warming greater than 2°C.”
What happens at 2°C (above pre-industrial)
“Mortality from extreme heat could surpass that of all infectious diseases combined, and rival that of cancer and heart disease.” (Source: Why Heat Waves of the Future May Be Even Deadlier Than Feared, The New York Times, October 25, 2024)
Heatwaves that have already been documented taking tens of thousands of lives will morph into “Super Heatwaves” with temperatures exceeding 50C (122F). Already, serious deathly heat waves have become prominent in hotspots of the globe, see: Mysterious Global Hotspots.
Regions of the planet will become uninhabitable. In some parts of the world the combination of heat and humidity will reach lethal levels for hours, days, and weeks.
Parts of the globe subject to severe drought will increase by 50%. The Mediterranean, southern Africa and parts of Australia and South America will be particularly affected. The Amazon rainforest already suffers from repeating bouts of scorching drought. Intense and prolonged droughts will decimate food crops and cause high rates of livestock deaths, leading to severe food shortages.
One of the most worrying changes will be the weakening of the Atlantic Meridional Overturning Circulation (AMOC) which includes the Gulf Stream, dramatically altering weather patterns throughout the Northern Hemisphere. Europe is especially vulnerable.
With 2C of warming, according to Earth.org, global mean sea level is projected to rise by 1.51-3.25 feet this century, although more recent research indicates that is a low, low number.
Antarctic Emergency Session of 450 Polar Scientists – The Link
Regarding the threat of sea level rise well above expectations, of significant interest for the world at large, the following link is a YouTube video interview about the emergency proceedings of 450 polar scientists: Antarctica Emergency: Scientists Shocked as Sea Ice Melts / New Scientists Weekly 279.
What 2C of Warming Will Look Like: A Comprehensive Assessment, Earth.org. d/d September 2, 2024.
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