Good morning!
Macro comment: this afternoon (at 13:30 GMT) we'll have the monthly US inflation rate, and it's expected to come in at an annual rate of 2.7%.
If true, that would be a slight increase on the 2.6% recorded in October.
With thanks to TradingEconomics.com, here is the trend in CPI over the past year:
If November does come in at 2.7%, it will be seen as a short-term blow by many commentators. On the long-term, however, I think the progress in reducing inflation in the post-Covid era has been nothing short of remarkable - and while I hoped that it would happen, I had little conviction that it would.
I don't think I'm alone in the naive belief that money supply feeds through to inflation. On that basis, with both US government debt (now $36 trillion) and M2 money supply soaring a few years ago, I had a genuine concern that it might not be possible to get inflation back under control in a reasonable timeframe. But that is what has happened.
Again courtesy of TradingEconomics.com, here is the US M2 money supply. Note that as soon as the rate hiking cycle began in March 2022, its growth did come...
