A disappointing 2024 season gets a little boost thanks to MLB’s new-ish draft lottery
Today was the 2025 MLB Draft Lottery, where the clubs that didn’t make the postseason were entered into a lottery for the top six picks. The Mariners were slated to pick 17th overall by standings alone, but walked out of the lottery with the third overall pick, an enormous boon for the organization and a slight balm on the sting of a disappointing 2024.
If you have a Baseball America subscription, BA’s J.J. Cooper was in the room as the original lottery drawing was held and has an in-depth description of how it went down. Specifically, the reveal of the sequence that gave the Mariners the third pick was particularly exciting (for dramatic effect, the lottery results were announced in reverse order, leading up to the number one pick, but were actually chosen starting with the first pick.)
As a team that missed the playoffs but ended the season with a winning record, the Mariners had an overall 0.53% chance of landing the first overall pick, the second-lowest of any club in the lottery next to the Diamondbacks, so ending up with the third overall pick is a huge win. Per the broadcast, they had the 15th-best odds to get the number three pick. The lottery was instituted partially to disincentivize teams from tanking; a losing season improves a team’s odds to earn a top draft choice, but the worst team in baseball is no longer guaranteed the top pick in the draft. In 2024, the worst team in baseball was the White Sox, with a .253 winning percentage, but due to other restrictions on the picks, they were ineligible for any pick higher than 10 (which they did receive); the Mariners got the third pick despite winning basically twice as many games. Colorado and Miami were the two teams that were eligible for the first pick with the worst records, tied with 22.5% odds of getting the number-one slot. Both will pick after the Mariners: Colorado fourth, and Miami seventh.
Moving from the middle of the first round to the top of the first round doesn’t just offer the Mariners access to a higher draft pick than they’ve had in the entire Dipoto era; it also boosts their bonus pool significantly. Last year, the third overall pick carried a value of $9,070,800; the 14th was valued at $5,070,700. Assuming these values remain relatively consistent, the Mariners gained about $4M of spending power that they can either use to secure a top-of-the-draft talent or get creative with and distribute throughout the draft.
The Mariners will also get a bonus to their pool after receiving a supplemental draft choice; they’ll pick third in the competitive-balance round A, essentially giving them a bonus first-rounder. Last year that pick carried a value of a little more than $2.5M.
The Nationals got the first overall pick, and the Angels the second overall pick - their highest pick since 1995, and their first time picking in the top five since 1997. For the Mariners, third is as high as they’ve picked since 2012, when they took Mike Zunino. The Texas Rangers were also in the draft; they’ll pick 12th, slightly lower than where they would have picked otherwise, at 10. After the first round, picks will revert to traditional standings order.
Currently, the top projected player in the 2025 draft is Oklahoma prep outfielder Ethan Holliday, brother of the Orioles’ Jackson Holliday (and son of Matt). He’s followed closely by top collegiate Jace Laviolette, an outfielder with Texas A&M who’s hit 50 homers in two seasons for the Aggies. The next three players in MLB Pipeline’s Top 5 are all pitchers, two collegiates and one prep; one interesting name to watch in MLB’s Top-10 is Xavier Neyens, a third baseman from right in the Mariners’ backyard at Mount Vernon HS.
