Miami’s playoff hopes took an all-but-final nosedive while Alabama’s got a boost Tuesday night in the last rankings before the 12-team College Football Playoff bracket is set on Sunday.
Barring an upset in Saturday’s ACC championship game between Clemson and SMU, Alabama might be headed back to the CFP for the ninth time in the past 11 seasons – at the expense of the Hurricanes.
The Crimson Tide (9-3) were ranked No. 11 in the CFP selection committee’s penultimate rankings on Tuesday, one spot ahead of Miami (10-2). The Tide defeated Auburn last weekend, but their three defeats under first-year coach Kalen DeBoer include an ugly 24-3 loss at Oklahoma on Nov. 23. Two of the teams that beat Alabama are 6-6.
The Hurricanes suffered their second defeat of the season on Saturday, 42-38 at Syracuse. Miami would be the first team left out of the 12-team playoff based on the current rankings because the fifth-highest rated conference champion would jump the Hurricanes.
To make things worse for the ’Canes, selection committee chair and Michigan athletic director Warde Manuel said there was no way for them to leapfrog Alabama since neither team plays next weekend. The odds of them moving up based on lopsided results in the weekend’s conference title games are virtually zero.
The Miami-Alabama sorting was the strongest indication yet that the selection committee is looking at more than mere wins and losses, but also at strength of schedule and other factors that appear to give the SEC teams an edge.
“What it came down to, is we evaluated both teams, we think highly of both,” Manuel said of Miami and Alabama during the rankings release show on ESPN. “Both have had some losses that were not what they wanted. But in the last three games, Miami has lost twice. … and we feel that Alabama has got the edge over Miami.
“What it came down to was, Alabama was 3-1 against current Top 25 teams and Miami is 0-1.”
He also said Alabama’s 6-1 record against winning teams vs. Miami’s mark of 4-2 played a factor.
Notably, the committee docked Miami more spots for a road loss to the No. 22 team in the nation than it did for Ohio State losing at home to a 7-5 Michigan team.
Since neither Alabama nor Miami qualified for their respective conference championship games, it would seem the Hurricanes would have a difficult time jumping the Crimson Tide in the final rankings, which will be released by the selection committee on Sunday (9 a.m. PT, ESPN).
“Those who are not playing (on championship weekend), we will not adjust those teams,” Manuel said. “Because they won’t have another data point, obviously.”
Undefeated Oregon (12-0) remained No. 1 in the selection committee’s rankings, followed by Texas (11-1), Penn State (11-1), Notre Dame (11-1) and Georgia (10-2).
Ohio State (10-2), which was on the wrong end of a stunning 13-10 loss to Michigan at home on Saturday, fell four spots to No. 6. Tennessee (10-2), SMU (11-1), Indiana (11-1) and Boise State (11-1) rounded out the top 10.
After Alabama and Miami, Mississippi (9-3) was No. 13 and South Carolina (9-3) was No. 14.
Based on the current rankings, the top four conference champions that would receive first-round byes in the 12-team bracket are Oregon, Texas, SMU and Boise State.
If Boise State loses to UNLV (10-2) in Friday night’s Mountain West Conference championship, the winner of Saturday’s Big 12 championship game between No. 15 Arizona State (10-2) and No. 16 Iowa State (10-2) would probably be the fourth-highest rated conference champion. The selection committee has all but designated the Big 12 as a one-bid league, in any scenario.
The first-round matchups, based on the current rankings, would look like this: No. 12 Arizona State at No. 5 Penn State; No. 11 Alabama at No. 6 Notre Dame; No. 10 Indiana at No. 7 Georgia, and No. 9 Tennessee at No. 8 Ohio State.
“It could change, it all depends on the outcome of these (conference championship) games,” Manuel said. “As we have said, we have high regard for those who are playing in those conference championships.”
Miami coach Mario Cristobal had argued this week that the Hurricanes were deserving because they’d lost fewer games than other teams under consideration for one of the final at-large bids.
“We won 10 games this year and not many teams have,” Cristobal said Tuesday in his weekly appearance on WQAM, the Hurricanes’ flagship radio station. “And in our losses, those losses came down to one possession. That’s a very different résumé than the 9-3 teams.
“The awards should go to the teams that are actually winning the games, not the ones that are politicking themselves out of losses.”
The Hurricanes lost two of their last three games – they also fell 28-23 at Georgia Tech on Nov. 9 – and they didn’t beat a team that is currently ranked by the CFP.
Along with losing at Oklahoma, the Crimson Tide fell 40-35 at Vanderbilt and 24-17 at Tennessee. Alabama did defeat three teams ranked by the CFP this week: Georgia, South Carolina and Missouri.
“We’re one of the twelve best teams the way we see it,” DeBoer said on “The Pat McAfee Show” on Tuesday.
The committee ranked the Crimson Tide higher than two other SEC teams with three losses: Mississippi and South Carolina, which has won six games in a row.
Alabama might be completely out of the woods, however, if Clemson beats SMU in Saturday’s ACC championship game. If the Tigers were to secure the ACC’s automatic bid, the selection committee would have to decide whether to include an 11-2 Mustangs team or the Crimson Tide.
Iowa State was No. 16 in the CFP rankings, followed by Clemson (9-3), BYU (10-2), Missouri (9-3) and UNLV. Illinois (9-3), Syracuse (9-3), Colorado (9-3), Army (10-1) and Memphis (10-2) closed the top 25.
Army returned to the rankings, while Syracuse and Memphis are ranked for the first time this season. Tulane, Texas A&M and Kansas State fell out after losing last week.
The four first-round games will be played at the home campus of the higher-seeded teams on Dec. 20 and 21. The four quarterfinal games will be staged at the Fiesta Bowl in Glendale, Arizona, the Peach Bowl in Atlanta, the Rose Bowl and the Sugar Bowl in New Orleans on Dec. 31 and Jan. 1.
The two semifinal games will take place at the Orange Bowl in Miami and the Cotton Bowl in Arlington, Texas, on Jan. 9 and 10.
The CFP national championship game is scheduled for Jan. 20 at Mercedes-Benz Stadium in Atlanta.
SEC: This will be awkward for the loser of Texas vs. Georgia. The Longhorns are perched too high to miss the playoff, though a loss would make them 0-2 vs. Georgia and 10-0 against everyone else, and they also have the conference’s easiest schedule. For Georgia, it would be a third loss, but the committee doesn’t seem likely to punish the Bulldogs for playing in the title game.
Big 12, Mountain West: The winner of ASU-Iowa State is still likely outside of the group of four conference champs that receive first-round byes … unless UNLV upsets Boise State.
ACC: If Clemson beats SMU, it puts the 17th-ranked team in the bracket and makes the ACC a potential snub for the second straight year. (Remember Florida State last season?)
1. Oregon (12-0)
2. Texas (11-1)
3. Penn State (11-1)
4. Notre Dame (11-1)
5. Georgia (10-2)
6. Ohio State (10-2)
7. Tennessee (10-2)
8. SMU (11-1)
9. Indiana (11-1)
10. Boise State (11-1)
11. Alabama (9-3)
12. Miami (10-2)
13. Mississippi (9-3)
14. South Carolina (9-3)
15. Arizona State (10-2)
16. Iowa State (10-2)
17. Clemson (9-3)
18. BYU (10-2)
19. Missouri (9-3)
20. UNLV (10-2)
21. Illinois (9-3)
22. Syracuse (9-3)
23. Colorado (9-3)
24. Army (10-1)
25. Memphis (10-2)
