A closer look at the charity stripe.
It’s been a successful start to the year for the Golden State Warriors, but a few issues have hung over their head. One of the most infuriating has been the simple act that every basketball fan mastered to some degree when they were a child: the unguarded 15-foot set shot. Yes, even the best basketball players in the world struggle with free throws from time to time, from single-game struggles, to years of mediocre percentages, to the Ben Simmons and Nick Andersons of the world.
It’s felt like the Warriors have been particularly awful at free throw shooting this year, though narratives don’t always run parallel with facts. It could be that the Warriors simply appear to have a free throw issue because it has stood out in some of their worst losses. In their last two games, which both featured double-digit leads turned to losses, the Dubs shot a combined 19-for-30 from the charity stripe, a number many of their fans could eclipse if given 30 shots at their local 24 Hour Fitness (a wildly different environment, to gift the obvious disclaimer). During last week’s three-point loss to the LA Clippers, Golden State shot a putrid 9-for-19 from the line, sporting a mark that would be more at home for a three-point performance than a free throw line.
So is it just that the free throw woes stand out more in the ugly games, but aren’t as bad as the perception would lead us to believe? Or are the Warriors actually leaving an inexcusable amount of free points at the line? Let’s dig deeper.
Yep.
Well, thanks for reading my article, Dub Nation. I hope you return for the next one.
Okay, fine, we can dig a little bit deeper than that.
Really, really, really, really, really bad.
Again, thanks for reading my article. Check back soon for another one.
Okay, jokes aside, the Warriors are, indeed, tremendously futile at shooting the most valuable shot in basketball this side of uncontested dunks.
So far this year, Golden State is shooting just 69.5% on free throws. You know that’s bad, but you probably want context so you can appreciate/shudder at just how bad it is.
It’s the worst mark in the NBA, and it’s the worst mark by a wide margin. The next-lowest figure is 72.2%, held by the Milwaukee Bucks. The league average is 77.6%, the two median teams (the Washington Wizards and Orlando Magic, respectively) are 77.7% and 78.1%, and six teams are shooting 80% or better, led by the New York Knicks at 82.6%.
To put it in historical context, should the Warriors stay at this mark, they would become just the 51st team since the NBA-ABA merger in 1976 to shoot worse than 70% on free throws, the first since the Knicks in 2019-20, and just the ninth team in the last 10 seasons.
To put a face to it, the 2024-25 Warriors are shooting worse on free throws than Andre Iguodala, Ekpe Udoh, Draymond Green, Jonathan Kuminga, and Kyle Anderson’s career marks, plus noted clanksters like Michael Carter-Williams, Joakim Noah, Giannis Antetokounmpo, and Shaq(uille Harrison).
That is really bad, and fairly embarrassing when you remember that the Warriors employ the greatest free throw shooter in NBA history as their star (and one of the greatest as their coach!).
It’s a fairly team-wide issue, with the biggest problem simply being the lack of good free throw shooters on the team. It’s less that one player is tanking the number, and more that very few are actively fixing the issue.
Of Golden State’s 14 players who have attempted free throws this year, just three have shot better than that aforementioned 77.6% league average: Buddy Hield (89.5%), Steph Curry (95.8%), and Lindy Waters III (100%). That points to a clear issue, and the issue is compounded when you realize that Waters has only attempted three free throws all year. Hield, Curry, and Andrew Wiggins (who is right below league average at 76.6%, while leading the team in attempts per game) are really the only players pushing Golden State in the right direction.
Kevon Looney has been the Warriors worst free throw shooter this year, at an ugly 46.7%, but you could make the case that Kuminga has been the most detrimental free throw shooter. Kuminga’s mark of 61.3% is certainly better than Looney’s, but he’s second on the team in free throw attempts per game (4.1), and comfortably leads the team in free throw attempts per 100 possessions (8.7). Kuminga’s ability to get to the free throw line is crucial and valuable, but it’s also a drag on the team’s numbers.
Despite being one of the best free throw shooters in the NBA, there’s a case to be made that Curry is one of the biggest reasons for the team’s struggles this year. Curry is attempting just 5.5 free throws per 100 possessions, which is his lowest mark since the 2012-13 season, his last year before he became an All-Star. That, coupled with his career-low (excluding his five-game season in 2019-20) minutes per game mark of 29.7, means he’s attempting a mere 3.4 free throw attempts per game. That’s the fifth-lowest mark among the 44 NBA players averaging at least 20 points per game this year. Perhaps Curry playing fewer minutes and absorbing less contact at the rim will result in him being healthier and fresher down the stretch. But it certainly isn’t going to help the team’s free throw percentage.
Shooting percentages are fickle, and can change fairly dramatically over the course of the season. After all, we’re still only 17 games into an 82-game season. Who knows what the percentage will look like in a week, a month, or April.
But it’s fair to start looking around for answers. And while no team should ever just shrug, point to bad luck, and move on without putting forth a better effort, the first place to look at percentages is precedent. The law of averages suggests that every member of the team’s roster will, going forward, perform more in line with their career marks than with their stats from one month of the season.
So how have the Dubs performed relative to career expectations? Here’s all the players on the team who are averaging at least 0.5 free throw attempts per game, in order of over-performing career averages to under-performing. I’ve omitted De’Anthony Melton, who is out for the year — he was shooting 62.5% on 1.3 attempts per game.
Even with regression from Curry, Wiggins, and Hield, the Warriors would benefit from every player moving towards their career averages, as the boosts from Kuminga, Looney, and Green would go a long way towards making the team formidable from the stripe.
But they also can’t just sit back and wait for that course correction. Improvement will take accountability from all the team’s players, and lots of hours in the gym. However, in the meantime...
While the Warriors numbers from the charity stripe are painful to look at, it’s worth remembering how valuable free throws are, even when made at a low mark. Even at their unsightly team mark of 69.5%, a trip to the free throw line (assuming two shots) still averages out to 1.39 points. On the whole, the Warriors average 1.15 points per possession, and the league’s best offense, belonging to the Cleveland Cavaliers, averages 1.23 points per possession. Even a pair of free throws by Kuminga rounds to 1.23 points, making it as valuable as a three hoisted by a 41% shooter.
So while the Warriors are leaving points on the table relative to both the league and their expectations when they step up to the line, it’s still an incredibly efficient and valuable way to score points. Unfortunately, their free throw woes are compounded by the fact that they rank just 20th in the league in attempts per 100 possessions. They’re not getting the easy opportunities that are free throws, nor are they converting those opportunities at a high enough clip. As a result, they’re tied for 26th in the NBA in total free throws made with 262, while the league average is 301.
The solution to it all? Perhaps as simple as to keep shooting in the gym, and make a more concerted effort to get to the line in games. That, combined with variance trending towards the average, will hopefully remedy one of the team’s biggest ailments.
