(The Conversation is an independent and nonprofit source of news, analysis and commentary from academic experts.)
Spencer Goidel, Auburn University; Eliana DuBosar, Auburn University, and Zoe Nemerever, Auburn University
(THE CONVERSATION) The results of the 2024 presidential election cement a trend in American politics: Polls cannot accurately gauge support for Donald Trump. In the 2016, 2020 and now 2024 elections, polls consistently underestimated Trump’s support by an average of 2.3 percentage points.
While that average polling error is within the standard margin of error for most polls – typically plus or minus 3 percentage points – the real explanation is not that simple.
The margin of error accounts for random sampling variability, meaning any individual polling result could theoretically deviate by 3 percentage points, with 95% of results expected to fall within that plus-or-minus-3-point range.
However, the systematic underestimation of Trump’s support across three consecutive election cycles suggests a deeper issue, such as sampling biases or other methodological shortcomings, rather than mere random error.
The polls were much better at estimating support for the Democratic candidates in all three presidential election cycles. The average Democratic polling error is...
