The Royals aren’t afraid to make a bold move.
The Royals struck early this off-season by re-signing Michael Wacha just after the World Series, and on Friday they made one of the first major trades of the off-season by acquiring second baseman Jonathan India and outfielder Joey Wiemer from the Reds for pitcher Brady Singer. The trade is an audacious one but it addresses the biggest weakness on the team and reflects a new aggressive attitude from this front office that will give them a better chance of sustaining their success.
The Royals targeted Jonathan India because he’s a hitter who can get on base. Moving away from Great American Ballpark will depress his already modest home run totals - out of his 15 home runs last year, only 8 would have been out at Kauffman Stadium. But India still had a .342 on-base percentage on the road last year, and the K is actually one of the best offensive stadiums for hits and walks. He could very well exceed his on-base numbers in Kansas City, which will make him valuable even if his power numbers decline.
As for where he plays on the field, it seems likely he will be the new everyday second baseman with Michael Massey likely moving to an outfield/DH role, or potentially traded for a pitcher or outfielder. The Royals have indicated that Massey’s chronic back issues stem from playing second base, so moving to the outfield may be the only way to keep him on the field.
The trade says a few things about the way the front office is approaching this off-season. First of all, they’re not clinging to hope. Last winter they said they could no longer afford to wait around for some young pitchers. This year, they may be having the same attitude with their young hitters. Michael Massey is an okay hitter with good power and a poor OBA who fields his position pretty well but has trouble staying on the field due to back issues. A few years ago, the Royals would have clung to hope that the guy could stay on the field for 150 games and improve (this is how Adalberto Mondesi stayed on the team for so long!)
Now, the Royals aren’t going to rest their future on positive thinking, they’re aggressively seeking to improve the team. The Royals had the third-worst walk rate in baseball and their .270 on-base percentage from the leadoff spot was by far and away the worst in baseball. Bobby Witt Jr. had the eighth-most plate appearances in baseball with the bases empty. J.J Picollo quickly identified the problem and addressed it. Jonathan India had the fifth-best walk rate in baseball this year and he has a career .352 on-base percentage. The only Royals hitter to reach that mark in any of the last three seasons is Bobby Witt Jr.
The second thing this says about the front office is they are truly transactional now. Being transactional doesn’t just mean moving on from players that have demonstrated they are not good, it means making the trade that sometimes hurts. Brady Singer, for all his warts, has been one of the better pitchers in baseball the last few seasons. Since he came up to the big leagues, he ranks 36th out of 173 starting pitchers in fWAR. He may not be an ace, but he is a very solid mid-rotation starter in his prime.
But he’s also a pitcher they did not even have a need for in their post-season series against the Yankees. If the Royals had India instead of Singer last October, they would have stood a much better shot of advancing to the ALCS. Trading from an area of depth to address an area of weakness is what smart teams do. Singer could very well go on to have great success - and that’s fine! The Royals should not be afraid of making trades because a player they get rid of has success.
Trading Singer hurts the pitching depth, but this is a much better free agent market to find pitching than to find hitters. Picollo seems to indicate they intend to fill the loss of Singer by adding more pitching depth.
“We feel good about the guys who are clearly established in our rotation, and I’ll say it’s a risk worth taking knowing how fragile starting pitching can be. But we do think we have plenty of (pitching) options and the offseason is not over.”
The sustainability of Singer’s success has constantly been questioned due to his reliance on just two pitches. He was terrific this year, but just a year ago he posted the third-worst ERA in baseball for anyone with at least 150 innings. Selling high on him is what a smart small-market team would do - trading him for an actual valuable big-league starting player instead of prospects is what a smart small-market team serious about winning now would do.
There are other ancillary benefits to this deal. Joey Wiemer is a nice throw-in as a toolsy former top 100 prospect who hasn’t seemed to figure out big league hitting yet in a limited audition. He could be a nice project for Alec Zumwalt and his staff to see if they can unlock the terrific raw power he possesses. Even if he hits a little bit, he has the blazing speed to be a positive on defense and be a bat off the bench or a platoon partner for Kyle Isbel.
The Royals also save some money in the trade that could go towards more pitching or addressing the outfield. Singer is projected to make over $8 million through arbitration, while India is under contract next year on a $5 million salary.
In sum, this is a fun pure-baseball trade that has become rarer as the gulf between team spending has widened. Both teams traded from depth to address a need and both could benefit from this deal. The Royals could have rested on their laurels and gone to battle with the same gang that improved by 30 games this year. This trade shows they are not content to get just this far, and they will be aggressive about taking this team all the way.
