Severe Tropical Storm Carina further intensifies as it enhances southwest monsoon

MANILA, Philippines – More areas were placed under Signal No. 1 before dawn on Monday, July 22, as Severe Tropical Storm Carina (Gaemi) further intensified offshore.

In its 5 am bulletin on Monday, the Philippine Atmospheric, Geophysical, and Astronomical Services Administration (PAGASA) said Carina now has maximum sustained winds of 100 kilometers per hour from the previous 95 km/h.

The severe tropical storm’s gustiness is now up to 125 km/h from 115 km/h.

After being almost stationary from Sunday afternoon to evening, July 21, Carina has started to slowly move north northwest.

It was last spotted 420 kilometers east of Tuguegarao City, Cagayan.

Carina is still expected to remain far from Philippine landmass, but it will affect parts of Cagayan Valley due to its size.

The following areas are under Signal No. 1 as of 5 am on Monday, which means they will experience strong winds from the severe tropical storm:

• eastern part of mainland Cagayan (Santa Ana, Gattaran, Baggao, Peñablanca, Lal-lo, Gonzaga)
• northeastern part of Isabela (Divilacan, Palanan, Maconacon)

Carina’s outer rainbands will also bring moderate to intense rain to these areas:

Monday, July 22

• Heavy to intense rain (100-200 millimeters): extreme northeastern part of mainland Cagayan
• Moderate to heavy rain (50-100 mm): Babuyan Islands, eastern part of mainland Cagayan, eastern part of Isabela

Tuesday, July 23

• Heavy to intense rain (100-200 mm): Batanes
• Moderate to heavy rain (50-100 mm): Babuyan Islands, northeastern part of mainland Cagayan

Wednesday, July 24

• Moderate to heavy rain (50-100 mm): Batanes, Babuyan Islands

Floods and landslides are possible.

PAGASA added early Monday that Carina is projected to strengthen into a typhoon within 24 hours. Rapid intensification is likely.

Carina is also enhancing the southwest monsoon or habagat.

In a separate advisory at 11 pm on Sunday, PAGASA provided the following rainfall forecast for the enhanced southwest monsoon:

Monday, July 22

• Moderate to heavy rain (50-100 mm): La Union, Pangasinan, Benguet, Zambales, Bataan, Occidental Mindoro
• Moderate to occasionally heavy rain (50-100 mm): Metro Manila, Ilocos Norte, Ilocos Sur, Abra, Tarlac, Pampanga, Bulacan, Nueva Ecija, Rizal, Cavite, Batangas, Calamian Islands

Tuesday, July 23

• Heavy to intense rain (100-200 mm): Ilocos Region, Benguet, Zambales, Bataan, Occidental Mindoro
• Moderate to heavy rain (50-100 mm): Metro Manila, Apayao, Abra, Tarlac, Pampanga, Bulacan, Nueva Ecija, Rizal, Cavite, Laguna, Batangas, Calamian Islands

Wednesday, July 24

• Heavy to intense rain (100-200 mm): Ilocos Sur, La Union, Pangasinan, Benguet, Zambales, Bataan, Occidental Mindoro
• Moderate to heavy rain (50-100 mm): Metro Manila, Ilocos Norte, Apayao, Abra, Tarlac, Pampanga, Bulacan, Nueva Ecija, Rizal, Cavite, Laguna, Batangas, Calamian Islands

Strong to gale-force gusts from the enhanced southwest monsoon will also be felt in these regions and provinces:

Monday, July 22

• Mimaropa, Bicol, Western Visayas, Northern Samar, northern part of Samar

Tuesday, July 23

• Zambales, Bataan, Aurora, Metro Manila, Calabarzon, Mimaropa, Bicol, Visayas

Wednesday, July 24

• Ilocos Region, Abra, Benguet, Nueva Vizcaya, Quirino, Central Luzon, Metro Manila, Calabarzon, Mimaropa, Bicol, Visayas

For coastal waters, Carina and the enhanced southwest monsoon will cause moderate to rough seas in the northern and eastern seaboards of Northern Luzon (waves 1.5 to 3 meters high) on Monday. PAGASA advised small boats not to venture out to sea.

The weather bureau added that moderate seas are expected on Monday in the seaboards of Central Luzon and Southern Luzon (waves 1.5 to 2.5 meters high) and the eastern seaboards of the Visayas and Mindanao (waves 1.5 to 2 meters high). Small boats must take precautionary measures or avoid sailing, if possible.

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Carina is seen to exit the Philippine Area of Responsibility (PAR) on Wednesday night, July 24, or early Thursday morning, July 25.

PAGASA said Carina may pass near or over the southern islands of Japan’s Ryukyu archipelago before leaving PAR, then pass close to the northern part of Taiwan after its exit from PAR.

“From Thursday onwards, Carina will move over the East China Sea towards southeastern China,” added the weather bureau.

Carina is the Philippines’ third tropical cyclone for 2024 and the second for July. PAGASA previously estimated there may be two or three tropical cyclones during the month. – Rappler.com