The age old dilemma about just how surprising is something that can be predicted?
The top-nine forward group for players available in the organization is in, as voted by Pensburgh readers. It’s a very conventional wisdom-y type of group, no major upsets or surprises so far.
Drew O’Connor - Sidney Crosby - Bryan Rust
Michael Bunting - Evgeni Malkin - Rickard Rakell
Anthony Beauvillier - Kevin Hayes - Valtteri Puustinen
There can’t be much argument with the top-six forwards, based on what is on hand at least. The second line finished off the year on a red hot streak together, Crosby+Rust are known quantities together and O’Connor sticks almost by default as the best option available for the left wing.
The third line is, well, not particularly strong. Beauvillier has not been as good lately as the player most remember from his days with the Islanders. Hayes’ career is in a free fall, having been traded in the last 13 months as a cap dump twice (from Philadelphia to St. Louis and now bouncing over to Pittsburgh). Most admire and hope for big things from Val Puustinen, who it might be easy to remember only scored five goals in 52 games last season, and averaged only 11:45 of ice time in a very complimentary role.
Lines, by nature, tend to frequently change, either due to performance or injury reasons. The nine players we’ve crowdsourced into the top of the lineup will all hopefully perform well, but who are the players that could shake things up?
The elephant in the room is a trade or free agent signing. If the Penguins could acquire, say Nicolas Robertson from Toronto or a home run like Patrik Laine from Columbus, well obviously the Penguin world shifts on its axis significantly. However there are some good internal surprise candidates to consider.
Everyone loves the hope that comes with a 19-year old former first round pick, especially when he had an absolutely smashing draft+1 season. Could it be too much, too soon? Scott Wheeler from The Athletic ranked Yager only 58th in his summer list of NHL drafted prospects, a number that most Pittsburgh supporters would scoff at, to a large degree.
But whether national pundits are slow to catch up on Yager, or whether Pens’ fans are a bit too sweet on their first legit blue chip prospect in the better part of a decade, Yager deserves to be listed as a potential surprise. GM Kyle Dubas directly named Yager as a player that Pittsburgh will be watching and looking for to step up and prove if he deserves a look at the NHL this season.
Most still expect Yager to graduate full-time to an NHL role in 2024-25, but with the right performance in camp he could easily work himself into the picture for the short-term nine game tryout prior to being sent back to junior for the rest of the season.
Yager has a great shot and good offensive instincts, but he profiles as a two-way center in many regards, his backchecking and attention to detail while tracking without the puck are attributes as his as much as his ability to score. That opens up options for the Pens, Yager could conceivably be a bottom-six center insulated with good defensive forwards like Lars Eller or Blake Lizotte. Or in a “teenaged Jordan Staal making his NHL debut at wing” flavor, Yager could play as high as with Crosby and Rust in a scoring line role.
That breadth of possibilities is as open as the creativity the Pens want to show. But it depends on Yager rockin’ and rollin’ in September as a pre-requiste.
Lizotte signed for more money ($1.8m to $1.25m) and more years (two to one) than Beauvillier. Could that be an indication Lizotte is factored more into plans than the Pensburgh crowd sees? It’s worth considering.
Lizotte’s ice time plateaued and slowly receded in Los Angeles over the years, but he is a player in a PK/lower line role that’s averaged 12:44 of ice time and scored 106 points in 320 career games. The claims that Beauvillier and Puustinen have on third line roles will not be strong ones, a few quiet games or bad decisions could get their ice time slashed. In essence, Pittsburgh may have what functions as two different “fourth” lines next year, in terms of talent and responsibility.
It’s not difficult to imagine a 2024-25 season where Lizotte is playing about 13 minutes per game (enhanced by the penalty kill) and having just as big of a role at ES as either Beauvillier or Puustinen.
Sam Poulin’s waiver status is now changing, he can’t be safely sent to the AHL without going through waivers so we’re now in “now or never” territory for the former 2019 first round pick. Dubas was quick to cut Ty Smith, a previous floundering first round pick type last year, but the Pens did give a longer leash and one final chance for Alex Nylander. It would make sense if Poulin is more Nylander than Smith this fall, but it will be time for him to step up and show something.
There are a lot of numbers and not a lot of places for Poulin to slot in. Between Hayes, Eller and Lizotte (not to mention Yager, Noel Acciari or Vasily Ponomarev), the team is over-stocked on bottom-six centers. That’s tough news since Poulin has spent much of his pro career shifting into a center role.
Poulin came up through the ranks as a winger, so that should offer realistic chances of versatility helping his cause. Again, numbers will be against him with the team having no shortage of viable options to round out the lineup.
The arrow on Poulin is moderately up after an impressive, if abbreviated by injury 2023-24 AHL campaign, now the onus is on him to show up ready to go and finally launch during this training camp.
