A lot can change after Emmy nominations are announced. Shows and performances that seemed strong might be more vulnerable than we thought, and contenders on the bubble might suddenly have a chance to win. We’ve already seen such a change in fortunes in the race for Best Movie/Limited Supporting Actor.
Robert Downey Jr., fresh off his Oscar win for “Oppenheimer,” was considered the man to beat for tackling multiple roles in HBO’s “The Sympathizer.” But then the TV academy unveiled the official list, and Downey was the only nomination for “The Sympathizer,” suggesting limited support for the limited series. So as soon as we opened our predictions for the Emmy winners, he dropped down to third place with 6/1 odds, though four of our Top 24 Users and four of our All-Star Top 24 are still predicting him to prevail.
The new front-runner is Jonathan Bailey for “Fellow Travelers.” He gets leading odds of 5/1 as of this writing based on support from four Expert journalists who have chimed in so far, seven Gold Derby Editors, 18 Top Users and 17 All-Stars. Granted, “Fellow Travelers” didn’t clean up in the Emmy nominations either. It only earned nominations for Bailey, lead actor Matt Bomer and writer Ron Nyswaner. But Bailey has the benefit of playing basically a co-lead role as a gay government employee surviving the Lavender Scare, grappling with his religion and battling AIDS. It’s a showy performance that already won him a Critics Choice Award.
But we should also keep an eye on a few actors in programs that got more overall support from the academy. Tom Goodman-Hill ranks second with 6/1 odds for his performance in “Baby Reindeer,” though he has the disadvantage of playing a relatively small role that is deeply unsettling. Then there’s John Hawkes (“True Detective: Night Country”), whom the academy liked so much they also nominated him for songwriting; he ranks fourth, but he’s virtually tied with Goodman-Hill and Downey with 6/1 odds.
Lewis Pullman (“Lessons in Chemistry”), the late Treat Williams (“Feud: Capote vs. the Swans”) and Lamorne Morris (“Fargo”) round out the category with 13/2 odds each. Honestly, it’s hard to rule any of them out of this race either, since all three of their programs got double-digit nominations including multiple acting bids. But for the time being, Bailey is in the catbird seat.
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