As they do every year without fail, the Screen Actors Guild Award nominations have surprised prognosticators with their picks for the film nominees. While Gold Derby’s official odds correctly predicted 20 of the 25 nominees in five categories — our users logged predictions for all except stunt ensemble — there was at least one surprise in almost every single film category.
SEE SAG Awards nominations: Full list in 6 movie and 9 TV categories
In the top category of Best Film Ensemble, voters unexpectedly went for “American Fiction,” which ranked sixth in our odds, instead of “Poor Things.” Both of those films did equally well in nominations in the individual acting categories, so that slot could have been a real toss-up.
While the Best Film Actress category went exactly as we expected — the nominees are Annette Bening (“Nyad”), Lily Gladstone (“Killers of the Flower Moon”), Carey Mulligan (“Maestro”), Margo Robbie (“Barbie”) and Emma Stone (“Poor Things”) — there was an upset in Best Film Actor, where Colman Domingo (“Rustin”), who ranked just outside of our top five in sixth place, nabbed a nomination over Leonardo DiCaprio (“Killers of the Flower Moon”).
The most surprises came in the Best Film Supporting Actor category. Frontrunners Robert Downey Jr. (“Oppenheimer”) and Ryan Gosling (“Barbie”) made the cut, as did Robert De Niro (“Killers of the Flower Moon”). But neither Mark Ruffalo (“Poor Things”) nor Charles Melton (“May December”) nabbed nominations as we thought they would. In their place, the SAG nom com went with Willem Dafoe (“Poor Things”), who we ranked sixth, and Sterling K. Brown (“American Fiction”), who we had in eighth.
Best Film Supporting Actress had most of the top awards contenders, too, including Emily Blunt (“Oppenheimer”), Danielle Brooks (“The Color Purple”) and Da’Vine Joy Randolph (“The Holdovers”), but there was one curveball: Penélope Cruz, who pundits have been championing for her performance in “Ferrari” but who we collectively ranked 10th in our odds.
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