Analysis: Hays CISD could double student body by 2033

HAYS COUNTY, Texas (KXAN) --- More and more students are expected to enroll in Hays Consolidated Independent School District in the next decade.

According to a demographic study, the district could more than double its student body by 2033.

There is an agenda item listed for Tuesday's school board meeting to go over the Population and Survey Analysis (PASA).

"Current PASA services include geocoding all students, projecting student population, providing grade-level projects, and providing a long-range plan," the agenda items aid. "In completing their work, they commit to spending an extensive amount of time in the District gathering information in person. Population and Survey Analysts (PASA), previously worked with Hays CISD in the early 2000’s."

Three scenarios of growth

The analysis listed three growth scenarios for the district by 2033:

• Low growth: 40,505 students
• Moderate growth: 45,423 students
• High growth: 48,150 students

In a low growth scenario, the report said there would have to be slower kindergarten growth, increased interest rates and two or three larger charter schools opened in or near Hays CISD in the short term.

According to the analysis, a moderate growth scenario would include:

• Kindergarten enrollment increasing to over 2,900 by 2033
• Mortgage rates not rising over 8.5%
• All planned developments moving forward as expected

The final growth scenario looked at the highest growth. A high growth scenario would include:

• Interest rates stabilizing or decreasing
• No major charters opening in the next seven years
• Camino Real or a large ranch along the Blanco River developing in the short-term

Projected new housing

The analysis also broke down projected new housing for the next decade in the district's area.

It listed a total of 63,452 projected new housing units.

39,575 units are expected to be single family and 20,162 are expected to be multi-family, according to the report.