Updated Post – Nov. 29 at 11:45 AM
Andy Martino of SNY reports that the New York Yankees and San Diego Padres continue their talks about star outfielder Juan Soto, and they’ve gotten to the point where they’ve started exchanging names.
Martino notes that the Padres asking price is understandably high and that San Diego wants top prospects/rookies and young major league pitchers.
Original Post – Nov. 10 at 5:59 PM
San Diego Padres outfielder Juan Soto is “100%” going to be traded before the 2024 season, Buster Olney of ESPN said on The Michael Kay Show on Friday.
Soto, still just 25 years old, has already played seven major league seasons and established himself as one of the brightest stars in the game. Given the slew of large contracts the Padres are already committed to, though, Olney said he sees Soto as the most obvious choice to be dealt.
“It makes sense that they would do that, given the other assets that they have, and the fact you can’t trade Manny Machado with his contract,” Olney said. “You can’t trade Xander Bogaerts with his contract. Yu Darvish. Joe Musgrove. Those are massive contracts that just can’t be moved, so I do think Soto’s gonna be moved. People who are in other front offices absolutely believe the Padres are gonna trade Soto.”
Soto is set to become a free agent in 2025, giving him one year left on his current contract. There have been reports of the Padres discussing a potential contract extension with Soto, but nothing has materialized from that.
Ross Cameron-USA TODAY Sports
Soto was drafted and developed by the Washington Nationals, then got dealt to the Padres as the headliner of a blockbuster deal at the 2022 trade deadline. But the Padres, despite being a potentially lethal force on paper, had a disappointing 2023 campaign where they missed the playoffs entirely. Soto was relatively disappointing as well during his first 52 games with San Diego in 2022, batting .236 with with a .778 OPS, though he put up a strong individual 2023 season with a .410 OBP and .930 OPS. He owns a remarkable .421 OBP in his first 779 games as a big leaguer, along with a .946 OPS and 154 wRC+.
If the Padres trade him, they’re sure to be moving a generational star who’s primed to receive a massive contract in 2025.
“That’s one where AJ Preller and Scott Boras can come out and say, ‘No, that’s not gonna be the case.’ All you have to do is look at the math,” Olney said. “If in fact the Padres are gonna get their payroll down to $200 million or $220 — which would be a massive reduction — they’re gonna have to make a move with Soto.”
The Padres’ total payroll in 2023 was listed at $281,578,933 by Spotrac, with Soto making $23 million. He was the second-highest paid player on the team behind Bogaerts, but unlike many of San Diego’s other key players, his contract is set to expire soon. Fernando Tatis Jr. just finished the third year of a massive 14-year contract, while Machado and Bogaerts each just completed the first season of their respective 11-year deals. Soto’s impending free agency offers a lot more flexibility than those who are locked up for the long term.
Given that Soto only has one guaranteed year left, he wouldn’t necessarily garner the largest haul. Still, the Padres should be able to get some quality prospects for him if nothing else. At the end of Olney’s comments on The Michael Kay Show, he mentioned the New York Yankees as a possible landing spot — another team that disappointed in 2023.
“And if you’re trying to map out a potential Yankees offseason, he, to me, is the most logical target because he’s not gonna necessarily require a big deal,” Olney said.
A team’s confidence that it could extend Soto after trading for him could also factor in to what it’s willing to give up, and how aggressive it’s going to be to make a potential Soto deal happen. In any case, Soto is the most coveted name on the trade market right now, complementing the intense Shohei Ohtani interest on the free agency side of the hill. He’ll be receiving a lot of money from someone in the near future — the question is whether it’ll be an extension from the Padres, an extension from somebody else, or a free agent deal in 2025.
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