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The Bears’ future is heavily dependent on whether they end up with the No. 1 pick via the Panthers, and it looks as though they couldn’t have picked a better team to trade with in March. Betting against the Panthers was smart money, and ESPN’s latest calculations give them a 68.7% chance of finishing as the NFL’s worst team.
They’re 1-10, they just fired coach Frank Reich and they whiffed badly by drafting quarterback Bryce Young instead of quarterback C.J. Stroud. It’s too early to close the book completely on Young, who has been brutal, but it’s hard to imagine him catching up to Stroud.
The Bears are still in line to draft first and fourth after a meager 12-10 victory Monday against the Vikings, but that can change a lot in the final six weeks of the season. The race to the bottom is getting competitive, with the Cardinals, Patriots, Commanders and Giants ready to pounce. The Panthers, meanwhile, are the only team that doesn’t have an incentive to lose because they won’t benefit from it.
It’s hard to believe the Panthers ever won a game — they actually beat Stroud’s Texans in Week 8 — and they’ll be underdogs the rest of the way. But five of their last six games are against losing teams liable to throw one away.
There’s an enormous difference between the Bears drafting first and fourth versus something such as third and eighth.
With the top pick, general manager Ryan Poles might feel compelled to take the quarterback of his choice and move on from Justin Fields. At that point, it might be logical to reset the coaching staff, as well, with an offensive mind at the top.
If the Bears don’t have first say on quarterback and slip so far from No. 1 that they don’t love their options, their best path forward probably would be to keep trying to develop Fields and build out the roster around him.
That’s a ton riding on how bad the Panthers are.
• The Eagles further can solidify themselves as the clear favorite to win the Super Bowl in the next two weeks. They host the 49ers on Sunday, then visit the Cowboys.
• Between their overwhelming defense — with Roquan Smith at the center of it — and star quarterback Lamar Jackson, the Ravens can beat anybody. They still have games against the Jaguars, 49ers and Dolphins left.
• The Lions are in a rut after narrow escapes against the Chargers and Bears, followed by a home loss to the Packers. They had better pull out of it quickly because they’ve still got the Broncos and Cowboys looming on their December schedule.
• A few teams have rallied from rough starts to playoff contention, including the Packers (began 2-5, now a half-game out at 5-6), Broncos (began 1-5, now 6-5 and tied for seventh in the AFC) and Colts (began 3-5 and lost starting quarterback Anthony Richardson, now 6-5).
Here are the updated power rankings as the NFL hits the homestretch of the regular season:
1. Eagles (10-1)
The NFL’s best roster for the second season in a row just keeps winning.
2. 49ers (8-3)
The 49ers won their last three games by a total of 62 points.
3. Ravens (9-3)
Currently the top seed in the AFC ahead of the Chiefs.
4. Chiefs (8-3)
The Chiefs have slipped out of the top 10 in points per game.
5. Dolphins (8-3)
They’re thrilling to watch, but are they built to win in the playoffs?
6. Cowboys (8-3)
Their next five opponents are 38-18 combined: Seahawks, Eagles, Bills, Dolphins, Lions.
7. Jaguars (8-3)
The Jaguars have won 14 of their last 18 regular-season games.
8. Lions (8-3)
Despite their slump, it’s near-impossible for them to cough up the NFC North.
9. Bills (6-6)
Last chance to prove legitimacy with Chiefs and Cowboys coming up after bye week.
10. Steelers (7-4)
They allow the fifth-fewest points but also score the fifth-fewest.
11. Browns (7-4)
The Browns still have an elite defense, which keeps them in the playoff hunt.
12. Texans (6-5)
Stroud leads the NFL at an average of almost 300 yards passing per game.
13. Broncos (6-5)
Since losing 70-20 in Week 3, the Broncos have a plus-19 point differential.
14. Seahawks (6-5)
The Seahawks have beaten just enough mediocre opponents to stay in the playoff field.
15. Colts (6-5)
The upstart Colts are eighth in the NFL at 24.5 points per game.
16. Vikings (6-6)
Wide receiver Justin Jefferson’s upcoming return gives them a shot at the playoffs.
17. Packers (5-6)
Jordan Love has a 103.1 passer rating over his last four games.
18. Falcons (5-6)
The Falcons suddenly lead the NFC South after beating the Saints.
19. Saints (5-6)
Their defense is still very good, but this team is fading.
20. Rams (5-6)
Matt Stafford is nearing the end, but threw four touchdown passes to beat the Cardinals.
21. Raiders (5-7)
Josh Jacobs is closing in on his fourth 1,000-yard rushing season.
22. Chargers (4-7)
The Chargers are wasting Justin Herbert’s career with their bad defense.
23. Buccaneers (4-7)
They have a path back to .500 with Panthers, Falcons and Packers coming up.
24. Bengals (5-6)
There’s nothing keeping this team afloat with Joe Burrow out.
25. Jets (4-7)
Aaron Rodgers was smart to say they had to be contending for him to return.
26. Titans (4-7)
Will Levis (drafted No. 33 overall) looks like he’s also better than Young.
27. Bears (4-8)
Their next game, Dec. 10 vs. the Lions, will truly measure their progress.
28. Commanders (4-8)
Remember: When this team was still trying, it lost to the Bears by 20.
29. Giants (4-8)
The Giants haven’t beaten a team standing higher than 28th in these rankings.
30. Cardinals (2-10)
A serious threat to the Bears’ No. 1 pick hopes with 19.5% chance, per ESPN.
31. Patriots (2-9)
It’s realistic that the Patriots could lose out and finish 2-15.
32. Panthers (1-10)
Opened as just a 5.5-point underdog against Buccaneers this week.
