Republicans are still on track to regain the House majority, but presumptive speaker Kevin McCarthy (R-CA) could have a two-year headache on his hands.
Voters did not present the GOP with the red wave they'd hoped for, and a narrow majority could endanger McCarthy's chances of taking charge -- some members have already questioned his leadership -- and the right-wing House Freedom Caucus could make his life miserable if he overcomes those doubts, reported The Daily Beast.
“Let’s just say that the margin is 10,” said one source involved in leadership race strategy for House conservatives. “If McCarthy is stumbling in negotiations with the Freedom Caucus to give them all the stuff they want, the outer core of HFC probably starts to go to him and says, ‘Hey, it’s time to step aside.’ McCarthy probably starts getting that message from all corners and stands down before the vote.”
The Freedom Caucus, that source said, has already sent out a pair of documents since this summer spelling out their demands, which include obscure-sounding proposals that would drastically change the way Congress does business by weakening the speaker's authority over legislative products and restoring a mechanism for removing a speaker.
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The hardline group also demands a seat on the powerful Rules Committee, which would also give them more say over which amendments get floor votes, and they may essentially hold McCarthy's leadership chances hostage unless he agreed to elevate their power.
That would weaken McCarthy's authority considerably and likely result in chaos, which Democrats say would present them with a good chance to elevate their next generation of leadership if House speaker Nancy Pelosi (D-CA) retires or steps aside, giving potential replacements like Rep. Hakeem Jeffries (D-NY) a chance to step up.
“If [Pelosi] retires, it’s the best possible scenario for us to break in a new team,” said one House aide. “The Republicans will fall apart constantly and make Hakeem or whoever look good.”
A Republican source agreed, saying McCarthy might find it harder to remain speaker than get elected to lead a GOP House.
“He’s gonna have to fork a lot over,” that source said.
