Series Preview: Mets Host Red-Hot Phillies

Today is April 29. How and why is this statement relevant to the upcoming Mets game, you may wonder? Because it’s still only April, which means we get over a dozen more Mets versus Phillies games this season. Baseball fans are in for a treat over the next six months.

While the Mets took two of the first three from the Phillies earlier this month, the season series started off strong. A Phillies win blown by Seth Lugo and the Mets bullpen in game one was followed up by a pitchers duel the following day, and an offensive showdown in game three. Since the two teams met approximately two weeks ago, the Mets have continued to play winning baseball, as their 14-6 record remains tops in the National League. Most recently, the Mets took two of three games from the Cardinals in St. Louis, a series noted for the intense brawl that broke out in Sunday’s Cardinal win.

While the Phillies sit exactly at .500 (10-10), they’ve been on a bit of a hot streak lately, coming off a four-game sweep of the Rockies. With Philly coming into town, a huge storyline here could have been Zack Wheeler and his dominant self returning to the Citi Field mound, but he’s not slated to start this weekend. Wheeler, of course, left the Mets in free agency after the 2019 season and most recently finished in second place in the 2021 NL Cy Young award voting. This season though, he’s struggled thus far, with a 5.79 ERA.

The NL East rivalry resumes this weekend with a three-game set at Citi Field, and despite the season being in its infant stages, this series holds a lot of weight. For one, we get to see Bryce Harper and Kyle Schwarber come to Queens – not only are both sluggers among the Phillies’ best, but the duo are notorious Met bashers as well. Harper has 13 career home runs in 76 games at Citi Field, while Schwarber boasts a .310 batting average and three long balls in just 13 games in the Flushing neighborhood.

On Sunday night, we get to witness the brilliance of Max Scherzer, whose 26 career starts against Philadelphia are tied for his most against any one team (tied with his 26 starts against the Marlins).

Lastly, let’s talk about the significance of May 1st. Sunday evening’s primetime showdown on ESPN will mark exactly 11 years since these two teams played, on the same TV channel, no less, in one of the most memorable nights in baseball history.

Friday, April 29, 2022: RHP Tylor Megill (3-0, 2.35 ERA) vs. RHP Aaron Nola (1-2, 3.74 ERA)

Although he’s allowed a home run in back to back starts after 10 1/3 scoreless innings to begin the 2022 season, Megill remains one of the best storylines on this year’s Mets roster. His April 12 start in Philly was arguably his best of the season thus far. Megill tossed 5 1/3 scoreless innings, allowing just three hits, walking no batters, and striking out five. Most recently, Megill struck out seven batters against the Diamondbacks, his most strikeouts in a game through four starts this year.

Somewhat opposite of Megill, Aaron Nola started out 2022 very shaky before finding a rhythm over his last two starts. After allowing seven earned runs – including three home runs – over his first two starts – Nola threw an absolute gem last week against Colorado. In seven scoreless frames, Nola allowed just one hit and one walk, adding nine strikeouts – ironically in a Phillies loss. Once the ace of this staff, Nola still can be lights out from time to time, but his recent track record (91 ERA+ since 2021) looks far removed from his two top-seven Cy Young award finishes between 2018 and 2020.

Saturday, April 30, 2022: RHP Taijuan Walker (0-0, 0.00 ERA) vs. RHP Kyle Gibson (2-1, 3.47 ERA)

Taijuan Walker makes just his second start of the season, after his April 12 start against the Phillies ended after just two innings when he left with shoulder pain. Walker ended up on the 10-day injured list but is now back on the mound looking to – hopefully finally – kick off a rebound season after a rough second half in 2021. While Walker pitched just briefly in his first start of the year, he did throw two shutout innings with four strikeouts against the Philadelphia lineup.

Kyle Gibson has thrown three quality starts already out of his four games started this season. His last two successful outings both came against the Rockies, including allowing just three runs (no home runs) in six strong innings at mile-high Coors Field. Gibson was nearly unhittable in his first start of 2022, as he tossed seven innings of two-hit, no walk, no run baseball on April 9, striking out 10 Oakland batters in the process.

Sunday, May 1, 2022: RHP Max Scherzer (3-0, 1.80 ERA) vs. RHP Zach Eflin (1-1, 3.20 ERA)

I’m almost at a loss of words to describe how awesome Max Scherzer has been for the Mets this season. As a pitcher alone, he’s been remarkable. But the energy be brings to this Mets team, notably in the fiery Mets/Cardinals series, is second to none. All that said, the Mets did sign Max to dominant on the mound, and dominate he has done. He’s struck out ten batters in back to back games, and his most recent start was his best as a Met. Scherzer allowed just two hits and one walk in seven shutout innings in the Mets wild comeback win against St. Louis. “Mad Max” has thrown a quality start in all four of his starts this season and has yet to strike out fewer than six batters in a game since joining the Metropolitans.

Zach Eflin is coming off a pair of very good starts against the Rockies. In 11 2/3 combined innings, Eflin allowed five runs (just three earned) while allowing only one home run and striking out eight Colorado batters. Despite being at the bottom end of the Phillies starting rotation, the righty has impressed thus far in April, with his best start being his first when he threw four shutout innings on April 10 against the Athletics.

Prediction 

While both teams come into this game riding momentum, the Mets have the overall pitching edge in this series, and as such, should eek out a series victory by winner the rubber match with another spectacular start by Scherzer on Sunday night. I see Friday’s game – with the Mets wearing their alternate black uniforms for the first time in 2022 – resulting in another superb start with Tylor Megill, while Nola exits the game early after being chased by the middle of the Mets lineup. Saturday sees the Phillies get even in the series, as Walker struggles with his command in his first game off the IL, while Harper and Schwarber both have impressive days at the plate.

But by weekend’s end, the Mets will have gained a game on the Phillies in the NL East standings, which would (in this hypothetical scenario) give the Mets their seventh consecutive series win to begin the season, extending the franchise record set just last week.

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