By Tim Ryder
Michael Conforto had an encouraging year in his fifth major league season with the New York Mets. He set a career-high in home runs for the third consecutive season with 33 dingers, broke his previous career-best in RBI by 10 (92 this season), and saw his stock continue to rise as a developing star.
The 26-year-old’s .257/.363/.494 slash with 126 wRC+ and 3.7 wins above replacement in 2019, while undoubtedly solid, pales slightly in comparison with the .279/.384/.555, 147 wRC+, and 4.4 fWAR he compiled in 2017 before going down in September with a major shoulder injury.
After returning to the team a few weeks ahead of schedule in 2018 and hitting a home run in his first game back from surgery at Washington, it took a while for Conforto to regain his form.
From April 5 — when he made his season debut — through the end of the first half that season (July 15) Conforto hit .216/.344/.366. Over the second half, he slashed .273/.356/.539. The one they call Scooter appeared to be back.
When the Mets drafted the Washington state native in the first round of the 2014 MLB Draft out of Oregon State, this is the exact type of hitter the Mets’ brain trust likely had in mind — a line-drive hitter with a good eye who goes to all fields with power. Check, check, and check.
Entering 2019, hopes were high for Michael Conforto to continue on this exciting trajectory. From Opening Day through May 16, when he was knocked unconscious after colliding with Robinson Cano on a shallow fly ball in left field, Conforto hit .271/.406/.521 with nine doubles and nine homers in 180 plate appearances.
After hitting just .167/.286/.333 with 11 strikeouts over his first nine games back (May 26 to June 4; 42 PA), Conforto snapped back into form soon after, hitting .260/.352/.499 with 23 homers from June 5 through the end of the season (100 games; 426 PA).
On the surface, sure, respective .10 dips in batting average and on-base percentage from what we knew as Peak Conforto (circa 2017) are somewhat concerning. But if we dig a bit deeper, we’ll see that Michael Conforto may be sacrificing in these areas in order to develop into a more complete hitter.
After seeing his line-drive rate (24.4 percent in 2017) and groundball rate (37.8 percent) plummet in 2018 (19.6% LD; 43.8% GB), those metrics stabilized in 2019 (23.9% LD; 36.1% GB), as did his opposite-field rate (27.9 percent in 2017; 25.3%, 2018; 27.7%, 2019).
Unlike the above-referenced statistics, Conforto’s hard-hit rate hasn’t returned to pre-injury levels (41.6 percent in 2017; 35.8%, 2018; 36.5%, 2019). Though, there may be a reason for that.
All signs point to Conforto making concessions in some facets of his offensive game in order to leave himself in a situation more conducive to success.
While his barrel rate (11.9 percent), launch angle (15.7 degrees), and average exit velocity (88.8 MPH) all sat well above MLB averages last season (6.3 percent; 11.2 degrees; 87.5 MPH), it’s Conforto’s increased plate awareness that’s caught my attention.
In 2017, Conforto swung at 26.6 percent of pitches outside the strike zone, making contact 56.9 percent of the time. In 2018, he appeared to make a concerted effort to choose wisely on pitches outside the zone (27.6 percent O-Swing rate; up a point) and saw his O-Contact rate modestly increase (58.7 percent). Again, evident progress.
This season, Conforto seemed to continue down that path a bit further; and the results were even more substantial. His O-Swing% dropped a touch (26.7 percent) but his O-Contact% jumped up to 63.4 percent — a nearly four-percentage point increase and 12th-highest among qualified NL outfielders.
Conforto’s polished eye at the plate is also resulting in him seeing more first-pitch strikes than he has in the past (60 percent in 2019; a career-high), and he’s done considerable damage in those spots when given the opportunity (.338/.347/.676, six homers, four doubles on the first pitch last season).
In this perpetual game of cat-and-mouse, where major league hitters must continually adapt to pitchers’ corresponding adjustments, Michael Conforto is attempting to keep the upper hand. That’s an extremely exciting development.
Now, let’s keep this young man in Flushing for the foreseeable future. Please and thank you.
